Econosights – recession risks
Forecasts of a looming recession in 2023 or early 2024 in major economies have become consensus
Tag: Econosights
Econosights – Why is inflation declining globally but not in Australia?
Senior Economist Diana Mousina highlights the three main reasons why inflation is declining globally but not in Australia
Econosights – the outlook for tourism in Australia
Senior Economist Diana Mousina outlines the outlook for tourism in Australia
Long-term global trends and implications for markets
Trends that influencing economic growth and investment markets
Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect | AMP Capital
The impacts of interest rate hikes on conusmers are well known: higher interest means that mortgage debt servicing costs will go up which is negative for consumer spending. But, rate hikes are also bad news for home prices.. Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect Key points Declining home prices will have a negative impact on household wealth as 65% of wealth is related to housing. Lower household wealth is negative for …
Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? | AMP Capital
Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? Key points A peak in inflation (in annual terms) has likely been reached in the US while Australia is lagging behind and is likely to see a peak in December 2022. Extremely high European energy prices means Euro inflation will increase further and may not peak until 2023. But, inflation is unlikely to be headed back to its pre-Covid levels of ~2% per annum or less and we expect …
Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? | AMP Capital
Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? Key points The Bank of England’s latest forecasts assume a bleak outlook for the UK over 2022/23 with inflation peaking at 13%, a decline in GDP growth of more than 2% and a recession lasting over a year. Australia and the US are facing some similarities to the UK economy, but the energy crisis in both countries is less severe. …
Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? | AMP Capital
Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? Key points An increase in short-term consumer inflation expectations reflects the current high inflation environment. While consumers are assuming that inflation will remain elevated at its current level for the next 1-2 years, this is unlikely as forward-looking inflation indicators have been falling for months. Australian medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored which indicates that the market believes in the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target and does not …
Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction | AMP Capital
In this Econosights we look at some of the current issues in the housing market, including the the expiration of fixed rate mortgages and the outook for residential construction… Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction Key points A large chunk of home loans that have been recently fixed at ultra-low rates will roll onto a variable mortgage rate that is 2-3 times higher. This is …
Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? | AMP Capital
Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? Key points Consumers are responding to higher interest rates: housing market indicators are slowing (home price declines have accelerated and auction clearance rates are falling), consumer sentiment is weakening and retail spending is slowing. This is the expected consumer response as interest rates rise. The RBA wants to see slowing economic activity to reduce current inflation and inflation expectations. The concern is around too many rate …