What happened to growth? And what does low growth mean for investors?

Key points

-Global growth has been sub-par and is likely to remain so for a while yet. The same applies in Australia.

-This means low inflation, low interest rates, periodic growth scares and potentially a longer economic cycle.

-For investors, it means ongoing low returns on bank interest and constrained returns. But it’s not all bad – if growth were stronger we would return to worrying about high inflation and much higher interest rates.
Introduction

A defining feature of the economic cycle we are now going through is the constrained and fragile nature of economic growth globally. After an initial bounce post the GFC to 5.4% in 2010, global economic grow…

Crystals and investor worries as we go from seasonal weakness to strength

Key points
– Risks regarding China and the Fed may be receding a bit for now but there remains plenty to keep an eye on including the risk of an “accident” flowing from slower emerging market growth and the plunge in commodities.
– However, our broad assessment remains that the cyclical bull market in shares is likely to reassert itself in the seasonally strong months into year end.
IntroductionBack in April  this year when shares were riding high, it seemed the worry list investors had  was relatively short and mild. Since those highs the worry list expanded  dramatically. Reflecting this major share markets saw falls to their recent  lows, viz US shares -12%, Austra…

Nine rules for investors to keep in mind

Key points
– Investing during times of market stress and volatility can be difficult. For this reason it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind.
– The key rules I think are: make the most of the power of compound interest; be aware that there is always a cycle; invest for the long term; diversify; turn down the noise; buy low and sell high; beware of the crowd at extremes; focus on investments offering a sustainable cash flow; and seek advice.    Introduction Due to an obsession with Taylor Swift and  then The Carpenters I decided I needed to have a Carpenters”CD with the full  Burt Bacharach medley they performed in the early…

Australia has a new Prime Minister

15 September 2015 Australia has a new Prime Minister Following a party room vote last night, Malcolm Turnbull is now Australia’s Prime Minister (PM) after winning the Liberal Party leadership 54 to 44 votes. Malcolm Turnbull is known as a Liberal Party moderate – less socially conservative (he ran the …

The Australian economy still soft – more help from the RBA and the $A will be needed

Key points
– Australian economic growth is soft at just 2% year on year. While the economy is rebalancing, expect sub-par growth to continue.  
– Ongoing sub-par growth is likely to drive the RBA to cut rates again & the $A is on its way to around $US0.60.
– Recent profit results reflect the economy, with poor resources earnings but reasonable profit growth from industrials. This is likely to remain the case.  
IntroductionThe  Australian economy remains in a difficult period as the mining boom unwinds.  Non-mining activity has bounced back but is far from strong enough to offset  the headwinds coming from the mining downturn. This note looks at the outlook &n…