E – Oliver’s Insights

The 2018-19 Australian Budget – saving a windfall with the hope of (decent) tax cuts to come

The 2018-19 Australian Budget – saving a windfall with the hope of (decent) tax cuts to come Introduction The 2018-19 Budget will be the last before the next election (due by May 2019) and so had to provide pre-election goodies but in a way that keeps the return to surplus on track. Thanks to an improvement in the budget position since the Mid-Year review, of around $7bn per annum, this has been made relatively easy. …

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Weekly Market Update 4 May 2018

Weekly Market Update 4 May 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Despite a 1.3% rally on Friday after another “Goldilocks” jobs report US shares fell 0.2% over the last week, but other share markets fared better over the week with Japanese shares flat, Eurozone shares up 0.9%, Chinese shares up 0.5% and Australian shares up 1.8%. Bond yields were flat to down. The oil price rose to its highest in 3 …

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After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms – interest rates on hold until 2020

After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms – interest rates on hold until 2020 Will Australian interest rates ever go up? While the global economy is seeing its fastest growth in years and the US Federal Reserve has increased rates five times since December 2015 and is on track for more hikes this year, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has now left interest rates on hold for a record 21 months …

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US China trade war fears – Q & A

US China trade war fears – Q & A Key points President Trump’s actions on trade are mainly aimed at achieving better access for US exports to China and better treatment of US intellectual property by China. They are not primarily aimed at traditional US allies, reducing the risk of a global trade war. So far there is only a “phoney trade war” between the US and China as major tariffs are only “proposed”. Signs …

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Econosights – The end of Japanese stagnation?

Econosights – The end of Japanese stagnation? Key points Years of low growth and inflation are gradually turning around in Japan thanks to the slow-moving impacts of Abenomics combined with a strong global economy. A lift in growth and employment reforms are increasing participation in the labour market, adding to an already tight labour market. Recent wage agreements will add to inflation. The solid economic cycle and good corporate health is positive news for Japanese …

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Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks

Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …

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Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle?

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle? Key points Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong this decade thanks largely to the “search for attractive yield” by investors. This return driver is expected to start to fade but rising rents, particularly in the south-east office markets, will provide an offset keeping returns solid for now. Commercial property yields still offer a strong premium relative to bonds suggesting we are a long …

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Why passive investing now won’t deliver all your goals

Why passive investing now won’t deliver all your goals Passive investment funds used to be a relatively obscure part of the market. But with their popularity soaring in recent years, many investors might now be sceptical about paying for active investment. Market performance over recent years would reinforce that scepticism. Holding a passive mix of mainstream assets has performed very well over the last 5 years. For example, an investor who suffers a permanent 25% …

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Tariffs, Trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog

Tariffs, Trump, North Korea and other global political risks in the Year of the Dog Key points Geopolitical issues generate much interest as dinner party conversations but don’t necessarily have a significant impact on markets, apart from a bit of noise. But given a backlash against economic rationalist policies, the falling relative power of the US & the ability of social media to allow us to make our own reality, geopolitical risks are higher than they used to be. Key …

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Where’s all the share market volatility coming from?

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from? There is quite a lot of talk about volatility coming back to share markets all of a sudden, and with the talk there’s also bit of conjecture about where the volatility originates from. Some say it’s because interest rates and bond yields are beginning to rise; others will point to the end of quantitative easing in the United States and elsewhere for the bumpier ride. The return …