Where’s all the share market volatility coming from?

Where’s all the share market volatility coming from? There is quite a lot of talk about volatility coming back to share markets all of a sudden, and with the talk there’s also bit of conjecture about where the volatility originates from. Some say it’s because interest rates and bond yields are beginning to rise; others will point to the end of quantitative easing in the United States and elsewhere for the bumpier ride. The return …

What high household debt means for investors

What high household debt means for investors “High house-hold debt is Australia’s Achilles heel,” says AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver. “I’ve been thinking this for many years now and yet it seems to keep going higher.” Latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics puts total household liabilities at $2.466 trillion, or 199.7 percent of disposable income, putting it among the highest in the world. Australians have …

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform Tax reform in the United States has helped to spur on global economic growth, but investors should be aware of the double-edged sword that comes with the added exuberance, as already expensive share markets continue to edge higher. While company earnings growth in the US – and indeed in Australia – are generally supportive valuations, according to Diana Mousina, AMP Capital’s Senior Economist, the continued strong run …

The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last?

The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last? Key points The global economic environment and corporate profits remain in a strong position and economic growth in 2018 will run at its fastest pace since 2011. It’s too early to fear a significant lift in global interest rates. Central banks in Europe and Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in 2018. US rate hikes will continue. Inflation is likely to …

Add some extra cash to your New Year

Add some extra cash to your New Year We all dream of an unexpected windfall, and there may be no better way to kick start 2018 than with some extra cash to your name.  With a bit of digging around, it can be possible to find some forgotten funds you’re entitled to. A treasure trove of forgotten cash To begin with, many state government treasuries are filled with a trove of refunds and overpayments, unpresented …

Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018

13 December 2017 Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But …

Pricing President Trump into global markets

10 November 2017 Pricing President Trump into global markets Pricing in the possibility of an early exit by Donald Trump from the United States Presidency may feel a bit hypothetical at this stage, but it’s an exercise worth undertaking for investors concerned about potential portfolio shocks, says Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Straight off the bat it’s worth noting that a possible move to impeach President Trump – …

Are we in another 1990s tech bubble?

Are we in another 1990s tech bubble? A quick look at the valuations of the so called FAANMG group of stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google – and it certainly feels like it we’re in a tech stocks bubble a-la the late 1990s. However, if we compare valuations of this group to historical valuations during the major global asset bubbles over the last 40 years, it’s possible FAANMG and tech generally might …

Aussie banks are OK but there’s better value overseas

Aussie banks are OK but there’s better value overseas 04 October 2017 Banks globally are better value than local banks for share market investors but our “big four” still don’t look overvalued, says Shane Oliver, AMP Capital head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. “Going forward in an absolute sense the banks look ok. P/Es [price earnings] multiples are a little under the market average multiples in Australia and dividend yields are still good.“There is …