E – Oliver’s Insights

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors – but there’s a few storm clouds around

2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors – but there’s a few storm clouds around Key points 2017-18 saw strong returns for diversified investors, but it was a story of two halves with strong December half returns but more volatility in the past 6 months. Key lessons for investors from the last financial year include: turn down the noise around financial markets, maintain a well-diversified portfolio; be cautious of the crowd; and cash continues to …

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Weekly Market Update 29 June 2018

Weekly Market Update 29 June 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw geopolitical concerns around trade, and particularly the US-China relationship, continue to dominate investment markets. This saw most share markets fall, with the Chinese share market falling particularly sharply, but the Australian share market held up pretty well with higher oil prices boosting energy stocks. Bond yields continued to fall on the back of safe haven demand, except …

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Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates?

Should the RBA raise rates to prepare households for higher global rates? Key Points The RBA should avoid calls to raise interest rates prematurely just to prepare households for higher global rates. Such a move would be Iike shooting yourself in the foot in order to practice going to the hospital.. Nor should the RBA mess with the inflation target that has served Australia well. We don’t see it doing either and continue to see …

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Weekly Market Update 22 June 2018

Weekly Market Update 22 June 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw geopolitics continue to cause gyrations in markets with political tensions around immigration in Germany and Trump upping the ante on trade with China. This saw most major share markets fall, particularly in Europe and China and at the same time emerging markets remained under pressure not helped by the rising $US fuelling fears about a dollar …

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Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely

Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely Key Points US actions in recent weeks have increased the risk of a full-blown trade war – primarily between the US and China – with a more significant economic impact. So far the bulk of the tariffs are just proposed so there is still room for a negotiated solution (which remains our base case with a 55% probability). But there is now …

FinancialPartners 21/06/2018 20/08/2018 Blog / E - Oliver's Insights Australian shares / Background / Background on trade wars and protectionism / Economic impact / escalating / full-blown / negotiated / Protectionism / reasons for hope / remains most likely / rising / Rising risk of a full-blown trade war / Risk / risks / solution / Trade / Trade war risks / Trade war risks are escalating – but a negotiated solution remains most likely / trade wars / war / What to watch / Where are we now

Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed

Putting the global “debt bomb” in perspective – seven reasons to be alert but not alarmed Key Points Global debt levels have reached new records. Countries with very high gross debt to GDP include Japan, Belgium, Canada, Portugal and Greece. The main areas of rising debt since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) have been public debt in developed countries (with more to come in the US) and private debt in emerging countries (and of course …

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Weekly Market Update 15 June 2018

Weekly Market Update 15 June 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw most share markets gain as strong US data more than offset worries about a more hawkish Fed and tariffs, the ECB remained dovish, Italian risks receded a bit and the US-North Korean summit was seen as successful. Chinese shares were not helped by soft economic data but gains in global shares generally and lower bond yields helped …

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How global trends are creating infrastructure opportunities

How global trends are creating infrastructure opportunities The rise of emerging Asian economies, climate change, technological disruption and the ageing demographic, are among trends creating massive opportunities for investors. Understanding these trends is key to getting involved. The Asian Century The middle class in China has expanded enormously in recent years. As much as 75 percent of China’s population is expected to be classified as middle class in 2022, up from just 4 percent in …

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How are Australia’s states and territories tracking?

How are Australia’s states and territories tracking? An end to the fall in mining investment is helping to stabilise growth in Australia’s mining states and territories (WA, Qld and NT to a lesser extent) while a slowing housing sector is starting to act as a drag on NSW and Vic. Tas is benefitting from a lift in population growth and housing “refugee” demand from Sydney and Melbourne. Growth in SA and the ACT has been …

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Weekly Market Update 8 June 2018

Weekly Market Update 8 June 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets rebound as investors refocussed a bit away from the geopolitical soap operas back to favourable underlying global growth. This saw major share markets rebound, although Eurozone shares were constrained by ongoing weakness in Italian shares, and bond yields rise which was accentuated by indications that the ECB is getting closer to phasing out its …