E – Insights Papers

Shares sliding again – what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel? | AMP Capital

Shares sliding again – what’s driving it and is there any light at the end of the tunnel? Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising rates & bond yields and the rising risk of recession and the threat that poses to company profits. With the rising risk of global recession, global and Australian shares are at high risk of further falls in the short term. However, it’s not all negative. Pipeline …

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Market Update 23 September 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 23 September 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets fell sharply again over the last week in response to another round of hawkish rate hikes pushing up bond yields and adding to recession fears and with a threatened intensification of the war in Ukraine adding to worries. Reflecting the poor global lead Australian shares fell around another 2.7% with falls led by interest sensitive IT, property, utility and retail shares. Bond yields …

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Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates | AMP Capital

Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for a relatively short period of time; and 3) a large share of recently fixed mortgages are due to expire in the second half …

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Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect | AMP Capital

The impacts of interest rate hikes on conusmers are well known: higher interest means that mortgage debt servicing costs will go up which is negative for consumer spending. But, rate hikes are also bad news for home prices.. Econosights: Impacts from falling home prices – the wealth effect Key points Declining home prices will have a negative impact on household wealth as 65% of wealth is related to housing. Lower household wealth is negative for …

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Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it | AMP Capital

Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it Key points The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to around 1.2% pa. This has adversely affected growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to persist. Policies to boost productivity growth include: labour market reforms; more skills training; ongoing high levels of …

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Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook | AMP Capital

Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye on by investors are: global business conditions PMIs; US inflation and our …

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Market Update 09 September 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 09 September 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Sharemarkets were mostly up over past week, with the US lifting by 2.1%, Australia +0.7%, Japan +2.1% and China +2.3%. The exception was in the Eurozone where equities fell by 0.9%. After global sharemarkets rallied hard from mid-June to August on expectations of a “central bank pivot” from aggressive rate hikes, shares had been on a downtrend since then as central …

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Market Update 02 September 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 02 September 2022 Investment markets & key developments Global share markets remained under pressure over the last week on the back of continuing mostly hawkish comments from the Fed and ECB and ongoing concerns about recession. Australian shares had remained a bit more resilient through August than global shares did (helped by mostly positive earnings reports) but are now coming under pressure too with falls over the last week led by miners, energy, …

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Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different | AMP Capital

Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different Key points Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom fall in home prices out to the second half of next year, followed by a …

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Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? Key points A peak in inflation (in annual terms) has likely been reached in the US while Australia is lagging behind and is likely to see a peak in December 2022. Extremely high European energy prices means Euro inflation will increase further and may not peak until 2023. But, inflation is unlikely to be headed back to its pre-Covid levels of ~2% per annum or less and we expect …