Monetary

Oliver’s insights podcast: Episode #81: Have we dodged the recession bullet?

As rapid monetary tightening means a high risk of recession continues to persist, growth has generally been more resilient than expected. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five key reasons for why we could still avoid recession. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general …

Oliver’s Insights – The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August

Oliver’s Insights – The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead …

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Market Update 28 January | AMP Capital

Market Update 28 January Investment markets & key developments Global share markets saw another rough week as concerns about inflation and monetary tightening intensified against the backdrop of ongoing Russian tensions over Ukraine and Omicron disruptions. However, there was a decent bounce in Australian and Japanese shares at the end of the week from oversold conditions helped by an Apple earnings beat. From their highs to their lows US and Australian shares have now had 10% …

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Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation? | AMP Capital

Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation? Key Points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the early 1980s is likely to be over removing a tailwind for investment returns. Introduction For last few decades inflation has not …

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Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad | AMP Capital

Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad Key Points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later next year. The shift towards monetary tightening signals slower more constrained share market returns – but …

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Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned | AMP Capital

Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could come in late 2022. However, there are five reasons not to be too concerned: …

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the …

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the difficulties …

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RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work?

RBA cuts rates to just 0.1% and ramps up quantitative easing – but will it work? Key points The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program. While the economic boost is likely to be small compared to that provided by the recent Budget, the further reduction in borrowing costs will support household & corporate finances and housing demand as well as keep the $A …

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Magic money tree – QE & money printing and their part in the coronavirus economic rescue | AMP Capital

So why do quantitative easing? Normally central banks implement monetary policy by changing interest rates. But when interest rates have already fallen to zero, in order to support the economy central banks have been turning to boosting the quantity of money in the economy. Hence quantitative easing. The current expansion in quantitative easing (and its adoption in Australia) reflects: A need to ensure that short term money markets continue to function – as lenders became …