Tag: Inflation

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global business conditions PMIs. Introduction Although 2017 saw the usual …

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Could last year’s strong equity returns keep on rolling?

Could last year’s strong equity returns keep on rolling? Aussie battler On the home front, the economic cycle in Australia is less advanced than in other developed economies. Activity remains subdued as housing investment moderates and consumers remain cautious on account of anaemic wages growth. Nonetheless, the preconditions for an improvement in growth are in place. Business confidence has improved and there is evidence of broad-based acceleration in business investment. At the same time, large …

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Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018

Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But with global growth …

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Investors found the “sweet spot” in 2017

13 December 2017 Investors found the “sweet spot” in 2017 It was a good year for share market investors in 2017, particularly for those who overcame the fear of a potential market correction and maintained exposure to global listed markets. Looking back on share market and asset price performance generally, the combination of solid global growth and profits and yet low inflation and benign central banks created a “sweet spot” for investors in 2017. Investment …

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Debunking 3 myths around global listed infrastructure

13 December 2017 Debunking 3 myths around global listed infrastructure Did you know it takes 957 gallons of water to create a single Big Mac? Some 550 million Big Macs are consumed each year in the US alone. That’s a lot of water. But we simply wouldn’t have Big Macs without the infrastructure to filter and transport water to each part of the Big Mac production process. It’s easy to forget that infrastructure is a …

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How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world

13 December 2017 How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world The so called yield trade – which has pushed investors out along the risk curve into more risky assets seeking income – has trained individuals to think more critically about their assets they include in their investment portfolios, reckons Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Since central banks have dropped interest rates to record low …

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Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018

13 December 2017 Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But …

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How to pick the top of the real estate market

How to pick the top of the real estate market Strong demand for the broader real estate segment is likely to help prices remain strong for at least another year as the aging population seeks regular annuity in a low interest rate environment, says Luke Dixon, AMP Capital Head of Head of Real Estate Research. “Real estate is still fairly priced,” Dixon says, a view informed by a detailed analysis published in the latest AMP …

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What could trigger a property price correction?

10 November 2017 What could trigger a property price correction? The shift of mortgagees to “principle and interest” from interest only loans is one of the things to watch when considering the potential for a price correction in some of the more highly-valued residential property markets, Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, says. “When they [mortgagees] do that, they face a big increase in their debt servicing costs,” Oliver …

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Are we in another 1990s tech bubble?

Are we in another 1990s tech bubble? A quick look at the valuations of the so called FAANMG group of stocks – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Microsoft and Google – and it certainly feels like it we’re in a tech stocks bubble a-la the late 1990s. However, if we compare valuations of this group to historical valuations during the major global asset bubbles over the last 40 years, it’s possible FAANMG and tech generally might …

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