Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? Key points A peak in inflation (in annual terms) has likely been reached in the US while Australia is lagging behind and is likely to see a peak in December 2022. Extremely high European energy prices means Euro inflation will increase further and may not peak until 2023. But, inflation is unlikely to be headed back to its pre-Covid levels of ~2% per annum or less and we expect …
In this Econosights we look at some of the current issues in the housing market, including the the expiration of fixed rate mortgages and the outook for residential construction… Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction Key points A large chunk of home loans that have been recently fixed at ultra-low rates will roll onto a variable mortgage rate that is 2-3 times higher. This is …
Market Update 1 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments Recession fears dominated over the last week pushing US, European and Japanese shares down, although Chinese shares (having already had a 35% bear market) rose. Australian shares were little changed with gains in utilities, energy and industrials offset by falls in property, IT and telco shares. Recession fears also pushed down long-term bond yields, oil prices and metal prices with the iron ore price …
Market Update 24 June 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets managed to stabilise and, in most major markets, bounce from oversold levels over the last week as there were no new hawkish surprises from central banks and weak economic data saw bond yields fall taking pressure of share market valuations despite increasing worries about recession. For the week (to date) US shares are up just over 3% and Australian shares rose by just …
Market Update 03 June 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets mostly rose again in the past week as the rebound from oversold levels continued partly on hopes that some cooling in demand will take pressure of inflation and central banks, and as China started to reopen. European shares were little changed but US, Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares rose. The gains in Australian shares were let by resources, consumer staples and industrials offsetting falls …
The RBA starts raising rates – how far and how fast? And what does it mean for investors? Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by 0.25% taking it to 0.35% and signalling more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5% by year-end and to 2% by mid next year. But the RBA will only raise rates as far as necessary to cool inflation and high household debt …
Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices Key Points Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an offset in Australia from the boost to national income from higher energy prices and commodity prices generally and scope for the Federal Government …
Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods Key points The Russia/Ukraine war is causing a big rise across many commodity prices including gas, oil, iron ore, coal and wheat. This will flow through to consumer prices. Flooding across the east coast of Australia will also put upward pressure on fruit and vegetable prices. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher to account for these impacts. We expect headline inflation to be just …
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares Key Points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely to be imminent. Introduction While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing …
Market Update 4 February Source: Bloomberg, FXStreet, AMP Investment markets & key developments Share markets saw another volatile week. Shares initially rose from oversold conditions helped by good US earnings results, but rate hike expectations, particularly in Europe and in the US after very strong US payrolls and divergent tech sector earnings news, added to volatility. Despite a hit from an earnings-miss by Facebook, US shares rose around 1.6% for the week and Japanese shares gained …
