Share market volatility – Trump and trade war risks Key points Worries about the Fed, trade wars (the risk of which has been significantly exaggerated) and President Trump generally have increased the risk around the global outlook but are unlikely to drive a major bear market. The key issue is whether the US is about to enter a recession and our assessment remains that a US recession is not imminent. The key for investors is …
Why passive investing now won’t deliver all your goals Passive investment funds used to be a relatively obscure part of the market. But with their popularity soaring in recent years, many investors might now be sceptical about paying for active investment. Market performance over recent years would reinforce that scepticism. Holding a passive mix of mainstream assets has performed very well over the last 5 years. For example, an investor who suffers a permanent 25% …
Where’s all the share market volatility coming from? There is quite a lot of talk about volatility coming back to share markets all of a sudden, and with the talk there’s also bit of conjecture about where the volatility originates from. Some say it’s because interest rates and bond yields are beginning to rise; others will point to the end of quantitative easing in the United States and elsewhere for the bumpier ride. The return …
Spread your money, reduce risk Six out of ten Australians own investments outside of the family home and super. That’s good news. The only problem is that many people are still putting all their eggs in one, or just a few, baskets. The latest investor study by the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) found 40% of investors admit they don’t have a diversified portfolio. Almost one in two investors think their portfolio is diverse, yet …
What the rise of the $A means for global investors The recent rise of the Australian dollar has been surprising but not confounding for experts who believe the its natural level is closer to US70 cents. Indeed, it’s the weakness of the US dollar that’s pushed the Australian dollar higher relative to the benchmark currency in recent weeks even though US economic growth and a resurgent commodities segment had most market watchers expecting the Australian …
The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession? Key points With inflationary pressures starting to rise in the US the global investment cycle is starting to get more mature. This is likely to mean a further rise in bond yields and more share market volatility. However, there is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede economic downturns, profit slumps and major bear markets suggesting that we …
Equities riding on fear not fundamentals “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” said Franklin D Roosevelt at his inauguration as US President in 1933. I think “the only thing we have to fear is the fear index itself” is a better description of where investors are at right now. It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street and beyond of the past week – the worst in two years for the …
5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market Despite concern, falling share prices are not necessarily a sign of a mild or major bear market situation, according to Dr Shane Oliver. The share market correction many people are talking about at the moment is causing concern for a number of investors, including those accumulating super and drawing money from their super savings, which is understandable given the rapid falls we’ve seen …
09 February 2018 The pullback in shares – seven reasons not to be too concerned Key points The current pullback in shares has been triggered by worries around US inflation, the Fed and rising bond yields but made worse by an unwinding of bets that volatility would continue to fall. We may have seen the worst, but it’s too early to say for sure. However, our view remains that it’s just another correction. Key things …
‘Volatility comes in clusters’: Dermot Ryan Investors glued to their share portfolio screens recently following the abrupt share market selloff should expect to experience more of the same in the months ahead, according to Dermot Ryan, AMP Capital Income Equity Fund Co-Portfolio Manager.While more volatility can mean higher levels of anxiety for some investors, it can also bring opportunities to those able to stay calm during these periods, Ryan adds. “Volatility, where we haven’t seen …
