Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for rates to rise …
Australian GDP slowed in the June quarter & will be hit hard by the lockdowns – but here’s 7 reasons to look beyond the gloom Key Points Australian GDP growth slowed in the June quarter but to a stronger than expected +0.7%qoq. This avoids a technical recession, but the current quarter is likely to see a 4% slump due to the lockdowns. While there is lots of gloom around there remains strong reason for optimism …
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery Key points 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism – resulting in constrained but positive returns for balanced growth super funds. For 2021, the combination of massive policy stimulus and the prospect of vaccines allowing a return to something more normal by end 2021/early 2022 should see a decent …
RBA holds – but more stimulus likely as Victorian lockdown to knock at least $12bn from national GDP Key points Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter. The further hit to the economy and likely additional upwards pressure on unemployment is increasing pressure for more policy stimulus. This is likely to see the federal budget …
Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets, with the exception of European shares, pushed higher again over the last week on ongoing signs that the coronavirus curve is flattening in a number of countries which is resulting in a move towards relaxing lockdowns amidst promising reports regarding anti-viral drug tests. While Australian energy stocks were hit as oil prices fell, the local share market was pushed higher again by a strong global …
What if interest rates rise faster than expected? The US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice as often as the market expects in 2018, according to AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver. “This year we think the Fed is going to raise rates more than the market is allowing for,” says Oliver. “Market expectations are factoring about two and a half hikes and we actually think they will do …
4 Things You Wouldn’t Think You Need to Budget For, but Need to Do Most people that start a budget tend to overlook some important things such as repairs when making a budget. When the need for a repair arises, they have to take money out of their savings or take money out from other areas of the budget such as money allocated for food. In doing so, it may ruin their finances. Our advice …
