The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. The conflict in Israel this week has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in, avoiding a severe impact on oil supplies. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the parallels with the run up in bond yields prior to the 1987 crash, current …
The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key Points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead but it’s …
US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields may be at or close to over. But the end of the bond bull market is likely to be …
Rising bond yields and the end of the super cycle bull market in bonds Key Points It’s normal for bond yields to rise in economic recoveries but it’s looking increasingly likely that the nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. This will remove a key tailwind for investment returns over the decade ahead but as we have seen this year bond yields are unlikely to go up in a straight line. Introduction …
Six reasons why shares are at or near record levels. But is it sustainable? Key Points Bonds and shares often diverge – we saw this a year ago with shares rallying but bond yields staying low. Shares have been boosted by strong earnings news, improved valuations, investor awareness of last years’ experience of a post lockdown bounce back, vaccines providing optimism in a more sustained reopening, some pressure for more stimulus & M&A activity. While …
Market Update 12 March 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets rebounded over the last week as bond markets settled down a bit helped by central bank action and as $1.9 trillion in additional US stimulus was signed into law by President Biden. This saw the US share market rise to a record high (albeit the bond sensitive Nasdaq remains 5% down from its high), Eurozone shares rise to their highest …
The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in shares. Central banks want higher inflation but will look through any short-term spike. The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. …
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation & bond yields? :- Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade war fears; geopolitical worries around Italy and now Turkey; and finally, slower …
All about annuities All about annuities Offering a secure income for as long as you need it, annuities are often seen as a safe, but not very sexy option for investing your retirement savings. This animation unpacks the pros and cons of annuities. Online source: Produced by The Financial Financial Planning Association of Australia and published on 25 January 2018. Original article.
