Five ways to turn down the noise and stay focused as an investor Key points A surge in financial information and opinion along with our natural inclination to focus on bad news is arguably making us worse investors: more fearful & short term. Five ways to help manage the noise and stay focussed as investors are: put the latest worry list in context; recognise that shares return more than cash in the long term …
Market Update 9 July Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets fell over the last week, mainly on the back of worries that a resurgence of new coronavirus cases will derail the global economic recovery. The poor global lead along with the worsening coronavirus outbreak in Sydney necessitating an extension and tightening of its lockdown pushed the Australian share market down with sharp falls in retailers, health, IT and financial shares. Consistent …
2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year Key points 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months returns from a well-diversified portfolio are likely to be slower but still …
Market Update 2 July Investment markets and key developments over the past week While the US share market rose over the last week, other global share markets fell with concerns about a renewed rise in coronavirus cases. The latest coronavirus outbreak and new lockdowns also weighed on the Australian share market with gains in telcos, retail and energy stocks offset by weakness in utilities, IT and property shares. The risk off tone saw bond yields fall, …
Market Update 25 June Global share markets rebounded over the past week with US shares making it to a new record high helped by calming words from the Fed. However, Australian shares fell partly in delayed reaction to the previous weeks falls in the US and not helped by talk of earlier rate hikes in Australia and coronavirus concerns, with IT and materials up but falls led by health and financial stocks. Bond yields rose …
Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could come in late 2022. However, there are five reasons not to be too concerned: …
Market Update 18 June Investment markets and key developments over the past week While US shares fell over the last week as the Fed surprised on the hawkish side and Chinese shares also fell, Eurozone and Japanese shares rose benefitting from reopening and having central banks that are a long way behind the Fed. Australian shares also had a strong week rising to a new record high although this was led by IT, health, retail …
Market Update 11 June Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets mostly rallied over the last week. The big surprise perhaps was the US where shares rallied to a new record high and bond yields fell despite another surge in inflation, because investors (rightly in my view) interpreted the make-up of higher than expected inflation for May as consistent with the Fed’s assessment that the spike in inflation would be …
Inflation – why it matters for investment markets Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around central bank targets which is our base case would remove this tailwind but still allow reasonable returns, whereas a sustained break …
The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are seven reasons for optimism that the recovery will continue at a decent rate: vaccines; global growth is ramping up; consumer spending …
