E – Oliver’s Insights

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the …

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Market Update 27 November 2020

Market Update 27 November 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets pushed higher again over the last week as positive vaccine news helped offset fears about the short-term economic impact of lockdowns in the US and Europe. US shares made it to a new record high as President elect Biden’s nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was seen as positive. Reflecting the positive global lead Australian shares had a …

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the difficulties …

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Econosights: Global labour markets are worse than they appear

Econosights: Global labour markets are worse than they appear Key points Global labour markets have proved resilient during the COVID-19 shock. One of the reasons for this is the utilisation of wage subsidy schemes. These schemes mask stood down or underutilised workers, keeping the unemployment rate artificially lower than it would be otherwise. The labour force participation rate has also plummeted in developed countries which has helped to keep the unemployment rate down. These discouraged …

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Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now?

Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now? Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing more rapid structural change. As a result, we …

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Market Update 20 November 2020

Market Update 20 November 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week While the US S&P 500 fell slightly over the last week on the back of rising new coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in the US, other major global share markets rose helped by good vaccine news. Australian shares continued to recover with hopes that quick action will limit a covid outbreak in South Australia and as economic data continued to surprise …

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Still The Lucky Country – five reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform in the year ahead

Still The Lucky Country – five reasons why Australian shares are likely to outperform in the year ahead Key points Australia continues to perform better in “controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic support policy response, its major trading partners in Asia are in better shape, the drag from the mining bust is over and it should benefit from a cyclical global recovery in 2021. This is likely to result in a stronger recovery for …

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Market Update 13 November 2020

Market Update 13 November 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rose further over the last week helped by positive news regarding a vaccine for coronavirus but gains were reduced later in the week by rising US coronavirus cases and the threat this posed to the economy with no progress on more fiscal stimulus. Australia shares rose sharply again helped by the positive global lead, a surge in energy stocks …

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Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia

Joe Biden on track to become US president – implications for investors and Australia Key points The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency. While there is a possibility that the Democrats could win control of the Senate via runoff elections in Georgia, the most likely outcome is that Democrats will retain control …

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Mixed outlook for Australian housing amid prolonged pandemic

Mixed outlook for Australian housing amid prolonged pandemic A relatively high rate of unemployment across the nation, coupled with a freeze on immigration, and consequently population growth, might ordinarily spell bad news for the housing market. Instead, Australian capital city average dwelling prices rose 0.2% in October, according to CoreLogic, the first monthly gain since April and hot on the heels of a cumulative contraction of almost 3% between April and September. Prices …