E – ESG Wrap (Econosights)

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Australian economic policy beyond COVID-19 Key points The post-pandemic economic rebound is strong in Australia. But, after the initial bounce in activity, there is a need to reinvigorate the drivers of long-run economic growth. Productivity growth has been low in Australia and needs to lift to see a rise in incomes and living standards. Higher productivity growth is achieved through economic reform. Areas in Australia that deserve policy attention include: lifting household incomes …

FinancialPartners 30/03/2021 30/03/2021 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Market Watch / E - Markets & Investments / FP - Financial Planning economic / postpandemic / rebound / strong

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021

Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …

FinancialPartners 25/02/2021 26/02/2021 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Market Watch / FP - Financial Planning 2021 / Author Produced / driven / economic / fiscal / injection / large / recovery / stimulus Original / strong

2021 – A list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2021 – A list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; & the hit to immigration in Australia. Introduction 2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit triggering …

FinancialPartners 11/01/2021 11/01/2021 Blog / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights 11/01/2021 / 2020 / Author Produced / better / Capital / feared Original / investors / published / than / turned

Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states

Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states Key points States/territories with lower cases of COVID-19 have had stronger economic performance compared to the hardest hit states of NSW and Vic. This is not surprising given the imposed and self-regulated household mobility restrictions. Lower overseas migration over the next few years is a big negative for NSW and Vic state growth. Net migration had been a big driver of NSW and Vic population …

FinancialPartners 15/12/2020 15/12/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Markets & Investments / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning Author Produced / Capital / changed / Covid19 / drivers / economic / fundamental / growth Original / some / State

Econosights: The impact of economic shocks on inflation

Econosights: The impact of economic shocks on inflation Key points COVID-19 has caused a big change in consumer spending patterns. In developed countries, demand for goods has generally gone up but services demand has collapsed. Changes in demand along with some supply constraints have caused an increase in goods prices while prices for services have been weaker. Consumer inflation data uses consumer spending baskets from prior years to construct quarterly price changes. However, these …

FinancialPartners 27/10/2020 27/10/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / FP - Financial Planning “baskets” / categories / commonly / consumer / known / Measuring / more / spending / used

Econosights: The outlook for the global economy

Econosights: The outlook for the global economy Key points Our forecasts anticipate a solid rebound in global GDP growth over 2H2020 across developed economies from re-openings after strict national lockdowns, better management of COVID-19 cases and continued policy support. A cyclical upswing is evident in US indicators of manufacturing, industrial production and housing. Vaccine developments provide upside and downside risks to our views. Our current growth forecasts assume that a vaccine is available by …

FinancialPartners 29/09/2020 30/09/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / FP - Financial Planning around / Covid19 / earlier / globe / March / pandemic / since / spread / this / Year

Econosights: The outlook for consumers | AMP Capital

Econosights: The outlook for consumers Key points Despite the fall in Australian employment since March, total household incomes have risen from government payments and other measures including the mortgage deferral scheme and early access to superannuation. Consumer savings will lift in the short-term from the temporary boost to income and lower consumer spending. Higher household savings will help to smooth consumption over the next year as household income growth remains low into 2021 as the …

FinancialPartners 25/08/2020 25/08/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / FP - Financial Planning areas / been / Covid19 / from / hardest / Have / pandemic / related / some / those

Econosights: Inflation in the COVID-19 world | AMP Capital

Econosights: Inflation in the COVID-19 world Key points The money supply across major economies has skyrocketed from central bank asset purchases (or quantitative easing), government stimulus payments and wages building up in bank deposits. There is some concern that the boom in money supply growth could lead to an inflation breakout. However, prior surges in the money supply have not always led to higher inflation. Central bank quantitative easing programs are a big driver of …

FinancialPartners 27/07/2020 27/07/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Oliver's Insights / FP - Financial Planning advanced / Bank / been / central / Covid-19 / ECONOMICS & MARKETS / Econosights / Inflation / persistently / targets / undershooting / World

Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns | AMP Capital

Econosights: The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns Key points Rising COVID-19 cases around the world is leading to questions about the need for another round of government lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus. Lockdowns lead to closed businesses, lower household spending and higher unemployment. But a lot of these outcomes would still occur without a lockdown as households self-regulate their behaviour. Sweden is evidence of this. It has pursued a herd immunity strategy, …

FinancialPartners 22/07/2020 22/07/2020 Blog / E - Economics / E - ESG Wrap (Econosights) / E - Insights Papers / E - Market Update / E - Market Watch / FP - Financial Planning About / around / cases / Covid19 / further / leading / Need / questions / rise / World

Econosights: Coronavirus and migration – impacts to Australia from lower population growth | AMP Capital

Econosights: Coronavirus and migration – impacts to Australia from lower population growth Key points Australia’s headline economic growth outperformance (relative to global counterparts) over the past decade has been flattered by high population growth (driven by net migration) over the past decade A fall in net overseas migration into Australia means lower population growth and a hit to GDP growth in the next few years. But this is unlikely to become a permanent change unless …