E – Insights Papers

The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors | AMP Capital

The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors Key Points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of crisis events shows a short term hit to markets followed by a rebound over 3 to 12 months. Given the difficulty in timing …

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US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 | AMP Capital

US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 What happens to interest rates locally and globally is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. And notwithstanding the recent Omicron outbreak, the world’s most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, looks likely to lift interest rates as early as March. It would be the first increase in more than three years and marks a significant turning point in the global economic …

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Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when

Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when Senior economist Diana Mousina answers our questions on potential interest rate changes and what it could mean for Aussie households. Why have interest rates been so low for so long? The main reason interest rates have been kept so low is the Reserve Bank of Australia undershooting on its inflation target of 2-3%. We haven’t seen underlying or core inflation within that band sustainably since …

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Market Update 18 February 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 February 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets have seen another volatile week being buffeted by waxing and waning fears of Russia invading Ukraine and fears of inflation and interest rate hikes. This left US, European and Japanese share markets down. Solid profit results helped protect the Australian share market, which was up slightly for the week, with gains in health, property and consumer staple shares offsetting falls …

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Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues | AMP Capital

Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Key Points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to pick up to 3% this year. A Russian invasion of Ukraine risks a short term hit to shares followed by recovery over the next 3 to 12 mths. Australian home …

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Market Update 11 February 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 11 February 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets started the week on a positive note, clawing back some of the declines that occurred in January. However, the elevated US inflation data worried investors about fast interest rate rises from the US Fed. US share markets fell after the inflation data but were still up by 0.1% over the week (a the time of writing). Australian shares managed …

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Oliver’s Insights – The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August

Oliver’s Insights – The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead …

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Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares | AMP Capital

Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares Key Points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely to be imminent. Introduction While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing …

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Market Update 4 February | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 February Source: Bloomberg, FXStreet, AMP Investment markets & key developments Share markets saw another volatile week. Shares initially rose from oversold conditions helped by good US earnings results, but rate hike expectations, particularly in Europe and in the US after very strong US payrolls and divergent tech sector earnings news, added to volatility. Despite a hit from an earnings-miss by Facebook, US shares rose around 1.6% for the week and Japanese shares gained …

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The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August | AMP Capital

The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key Points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead but it’s …