Econosights: Have we reached peak inflation? Key points A peak in inflation (in annual terms) has likely been reached in the US while Australia is lagging behind and is likely to see a peak in December 2022. Extremely high European energy prices means Euro inflation will increase further and may not peak until 2023. But, inflation is unlikely to be headed back to its pre-Covid levels of ~2% per annum or less and we expect …
Market Update 19 August 2022 Investment markets & key developments The global share market rebound faltered a bit over the last week with mixed economic data and mostly hawkish messages from central banks. US and European shares were little changed, Japanese shares rose and Chinese shares fell. The Australian share market rose solidly though helped by strong earnings results for some companies led by strong gains in retail, resources and industrial stocks. Bond yields …
Market Update 12 August 2022 Investment markets & key developments The share market rebound continued over the last week helped by weaker than expected US inflation data. Australian shares were little changed though with strong gains in resources largely offset by sharp falls in IT, health and property shares. Bond yields generally rose as the fall in yields in prior weeks had gone a little too far too fast. Oil prices rose partly due …
Market Update 5 August 2022 Investment markets & key developments The rebound in share markets continued over the last week helped by good earnings data and relief that increased China/US tensions resulting from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan did not spill over into a more serious conflict (at least not yet). The positive global lead along with signs of slightly diminished hawkishness from the RBA pushed the Australian share market higher with …
Market Update 1 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments Recession fears dominated over the last week pushing US, European and Japanese shares down, although Chinese shares (having already had a 35% bear market) rose. Australian shares were little changed with gains in utilities, energy and industrials offset by falls in property, IT and telco shares. Recession fears also pushed down long-term bond yields, oil prices and metal prices with the iron ore price …
Market Update 03 June 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets mostly rose again in the past week as the rebound from oversold levels continued partly on hopes that some cooling in demand will take pressure of inflation and central banks, and as China started to reopen. European shares were little changed but US, Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares rose. The gains in Australian shares were let by resources, consumer staples and industrials offsetting falls …
Market Update 18 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets rebound helped by optimism about a peace deal in Ukraine, a fall back in oil prices, relief that the Fed’s first rate hike was broadly as expected with the Fed seeing the US economy as strong and indications that China will provide more policy stimulus partly to combat covid related lockdowns. This saw strong gains in …
Corrections, gummy bears and grizzly bears in shares Key Points Shares have had a good rebound but could still fall further in the short term as risks remain high around monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions. However, a deep bear market is unlikely as US, global and Australian recessions are unlikely to be imminent. Introduction While shares have had a nice rebound from their January lows helped in part by some good earnings news – reversing …
2020-21 saw investment returns rebound – expect more modest but still good returns this financial year Key points 2020-21 saw investment returns rebound after the coronavirus hit depressed 2019-20 returns. Key lessons for investors from 2020-21 were to: allow that share markets look ahead; timing markets is hard; don’t fight central banks; and turn down the noise. Over the next 12 months returns from a well-diversified portfolio are likely to be slower but still …
