February

Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months | AMP Capital

Five reasons why the Australian dollar is likely to resume its upswing over the next 12 months Key Points Since its February high of around $US0.80 the $A the $A has fallen on the back of global growth concerns, a slowdown in China and the Delta outbreak in Australia. However, there is good reason to expect the $A to resume its rising trend: sentiment towards the $A is negative; global growth is likely to …

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RBA concerns underline mid-to-long term risks for the housing market

RBA concerns underline mid-to-long term risks for the housing market One of the more interesting snippets of information to come out of the minutes of the February meeting of the Reserve Bank Board was an acknowledgement by members of the risks generated by a low-rate environment and, in particular, those “linked to higher leverage and asset prices, particularly in the housing market”. They weren’t concerned enough to detour from their stimulus program, but the RBA …

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Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable? | AMP Capital

Shares climb a “wall of worry” – but is it sustainable? Key points The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions. Shares are vulnerable to a short-term consolidation or pullback. But if we are right, and April was the low in economic conditions, then shares are likely to be higher on a 6 to …

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Oliver’s Insights – What signposts can we watch to be confident shares have bottomed?

Introduction After a roughly 35% plunge from their February high point to their lows around 23rd March, global and Australian shares have had a 15-20% rally. What’s more this rally has occurred despite increasingly bleak economic data ranging from plunges in business conditions surveys or PMIs (see the next chart) to a record 10 million surge over two weeks in claims for unemployment payments in the US. Volatility remains very high but at least we …