Is the Australian dollar headed for more downside? AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says he expects the Australian dollar ($A) to weaken further – making unhedged offshore investments more attractive — as interest rates continue to rise in the US. However solid commodity prices should put a floor under falls. So far this year the $A has fallen from around US$0.80 to around US$0.72. “I think the likelihood is it’s got more downside,” …
Why the $A is likely to fall further and shorting it is good protection against things going wrong globally Key points The downtrend in the $A from 2011 likely has more to go. The $A is near fair value, but the increasing negative interest rate gap to the US & a messy outlook for commodities suggest a fall to $US0.70 by year end. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the …
What two investing insights would you give your 20-year-old self? Hamish Douglass, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Magellan Asset Management My central advice would be that successful investing is about finding and then owning for the long-term companies that can generate excess returns for years to come. It’s not about looking for stocks that might come into short-term favour on stock markets. The worthwhile companies to own for the long term will …
Weekly Market Update 17 August 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets had a bit of a messy ride over the last week – first falling on worries about Turkey and then bouncing back to varying degrees on news of new US/China trade talks. This saw Australian and US shares up, Japanese shares flat but Eurozone and Chinese shares down. Bond yields were little changed although they are back above …
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation & bond yields? :- Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things Key points The fear of rising inflation and bond yields that dominated investor thinking earlier this year has faded thanks to a combination of: ongoing relatively benign inflation in the US; Fed hikes remaining gradual; strong earnings growth helping distract share market investors; trade war fears; geopolitical worries around Italy and now Turkey; and finally, slower …
Predictions for reporting season AMP Capital’s chief economist Shane Oliver says listed Australian companies are expected to produce solid overall profit growth in the upcoming reporting season, which will continue to underpin the stock market. But the results will be mixed, with banks, telcos and retailers struggling, and Australia’s profit growth will continue to lag the stellar profit growth of US companies. Oliver says he is looking for 9 per cent overall profit growth from …
Weekly Market Update 10 August 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets mostly rose over the last week as economic and profit news was mostly favourable and there was nothing really new on the trade war front. Bond yields generally fell slightly but there wasn’t a lot in it. Commodity prices were mixed with oil down, metals flat to up a bit and iron ore up. The $US pushed higher and …
Nine key rules to successful investing Key points Investing during times of uncertainty can be nerve wracking, but even in good times it can be problematic. For this reason, it’s useful for investors to keep a key set of things – call them rules – in mind. The key rules I think are to: make the most of the power of compound interest; be aware that there is always a cycle; invest for the long …
Weekly Market Update 3 August 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week US shares rose 0.8% over the last week, helped by strong earnings results, a bounce back in tech stocks and another“Goldilocks” jobs report. However, Eurozone shares fell 1.1%, Japanese shares lost 0.8%, Chinese shares fell 5.9% and Australian shares lost 1% as trade war fears continue to escalate. Despite this, bond yields were flat to up. Iron ore prices rose but …
What’s happening to oil prices? Australians can expect to pay more for petrol at the bowser as oil prices move higher in the short-term. Yet the price rises won’t force the Reserve Bank to hike rates as a significant acceleration in inflation is unlikely. Do I see the oil price continuing to surge higher? Short term, yes it could go a bit higher as global demand remains strong. The cost of oil has risen …
