E – Market Update

2021 – A list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2021 – A list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; US politics; China tensions; inflation; & the hit to immigration in Australia. Introduction 2020 turned out far better for diversified investors than had been feared when the pandemic hit triggering …

Market Update 18 December 2020 | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 December 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets pushed higher again over the last week as the roll out of vaccines and US stimulus optimism offset uncertainties about the near-term impact from lockdowns. While the latest coronavirus outbreak in Sydney weighed on Australian shares on Friday, the local share market still rose for a seventh week in a row helped by the positive global lead and stronger …

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The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely been seen

The Australian Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook – peak deficit has likely been seen Key points Reflecting the faster than expected Australian economic recovery, the Federal Government has upgraded its growth forecasts and downgraded its unemployment expectations. This in turn, along with higher than expected revenue from higher iron ore prices, has seen the expected budget deficit for this financial year revised down slightly to $198bn from $214bn. We have probably now seen the …

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Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states

Econosights: The unequal impact of COVID-19 across Australia’s states Key points States/territories with lower cases of COVID-19 have had stronger economic performance compared to the hardest hit states of NSW and Vic. This is not surprising given the imposed and self-regulated household mobility restrictions. Lower overseas migration over the next few years is a big negative for NSW and Vic state growth. Net migration had been a big driver of NSW and Vic population …

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What could a Biden Presidency mean for market outcomes?

What could a Biden Presidency mean for market outcomes? Market performance in the wake of the US election has been overwhelmingly positive, with Australian and US shares up 11% in November, Japanese shares up 16% and Eurozone shares up 17%. It’s somewhat of an ironic note, given Donald Trump’s fondness to cite stock market strength as indicators of his own economic success, and yet it’s gone up on news of his election loss. There are …

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Market Update 11 December 2020

Market Update 11 December 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets had a slight pull back over the last week with the absence of a new stimulus deal and still rising new coronavirus cases in the US weighing. Despite this, Australian shares rose for the sixth week in a row, albeit it was only a small gain, with a surge in the iron ore price and higher oil prices pushing …

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Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery

Review of 2020, outlook for 2021 – from pandemic to recovery Key points 2020 was dominated by the coronavirus pandemic but shares saw okay returns on the back of policy stimulus and vaccine optimism – resulting in constrained but positive returns for balanced growth super funds. For 2021, the combination of massive policy stimulus and the prospect of vaccines allowing a return to something more normal by end 2021/early 2022 should see a decent …

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Market Update 04 December 2020

Market Update 04 December 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets mostly pushed higher again over the last week helped by reasonably good economic data, renewed stimulus talk in the US and ongoing vaccine optimism. Eurozone shares slipped a bit, but other major markets rose with US shares reaching a new record high. Reflecting the strong global lead, stronger than expected Australian economic data and a surging iron ore price …

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Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree?

Modern Monetary Theory – can it help with economic problems or is it just another Magic Money Tree? Key points Modern Monetary Theory reminds us that monetary financing of government spending need not be inflationary if there is spare capacity in the economy. But it suffers from a number of problems: it implies there is always some sort of free lunch; it underestimates the costs of large-scale public employment programs; and it underestimates the …

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Market Update 27 November 2020

Market Update 27 November 2020 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets pushed higher again over the last week as positive vaccine news helped offset fears about the short-term economic impact of lockdowns in the US and Europe. US shares made it to a new record high as President elect Biden’s nomination of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary was seen as positive. Reflecting the positive global lead Australian shares had a …