March 2024 Market update Summary Global share markets rose over February and were notably strong in Asia as Chinese markets bounced sharply from very oversold conditions, and the US technology sector led by Nvidia and the AI boom. Most bond, credit and real asset markets were flat to down, consistent with rate movements. Bond yields rose as sticky inflation concerns mounted – the market priced out over half of the seven US rate cuts previously …
Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad Key Points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later next year. The shift towards monetary tightening signals slower more constrained share market returns – but …
The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are seven reasons for optimism that the recovery will continue at a decent rate: vaccines; global growth is ramping up; consumer spending …
Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now? Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing more rapid structural change. As a result, we …
Five reasons why this downturn and subsequent recovery are different – and where are we in the Australian recovery now? Key points This economic downturn and recovery differs from those of the past in that: the downturn was driven by a government shutdown; fiscal and monetary support has been faster and bigger; forced asset sales have been headed off; it’s dependent on containing coronavirus; and it’s seeing more rapid structural change. As a result, …
Econosights: The outlook for the global economy Key points Our forecasts anticipate a solid rebound in global GDP growth over 2H2020 across developed economies from re-openings after strict national lockdowns, better management of COVID-19 cases and continued policy support. A cyclical upswing is evident in US indicators of manufacturing, industrial production and housing. Vaccine developments provide upside and downside risks to our views. Our current growth forecasts assume that a vaccine is available by …
Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way Key points Shares have had a strong run up from their March lows with US shares now at a record high. While shares are vulnerable through the seasonally weak months ahead in the run up to the US election, the positives – including good progress in developing vaccines, the downtrend in the US dollar, signs of …
Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead Key points Australia capital city home prices fell -0.5% in May. Significant policy support & the earlier reopening of the economy have made our worst-case scenario for a 20% decline in average Australian house prices unlikely. However, our base case is for home prices to fall around 5-10%, as “true” unemployment will remain high, government support measures and …
Making sense of the Economic Stimulus Package In March and April 2020, a whole range of payments have been announced for Australians looking for financial relief as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis. Find out more about these measures and how your clients could benefit from the Federal Government’s economic stimulus package. The global and local impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has introduced many new questions in conversations between financial planners and …
