Three positive signs for global growth in 2019

Three positive signs for global growth in 2019 Many investors in 2018, particularly at the end of the year, were worried the global economy was slowing and that it might slide into recession. The concerns contributed to the weakness in share markets at the end of the year, along with a bit of uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike agenda and worries about the US-China trade war. But our view is that 2019 …

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook

2019 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was.   Recession is unlikely and so too is a long and deep bear market in shares.   Watch the US trade war, the Fed, global business conditions indicators, Chinese growth, politics and the Sydney and Melbourne property markets. Introduction 2017 was a great year for well diversified …

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either

The Aussie economy in 2019; it’s not boom but it’s not doom either Investors might be confused about the mixed news coming out late last year for the Australian economy and what it means for returns and rates. Economic growth has been okay, and unemployment has fallen to five per cent which is quite low by Australian standards. But we’re also seeing ongoing weakness in house prices. Some say house price falls could be worse …

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018

Weekly Market Update 21 December 2018 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets fall further on the back of ongoing worries about growth not helped by a “not dovish enough” Fed, a lack of new measures to address China’s slowdown in a speech by President Xi Jinping, threats to US/Chinese negotiations, worries about a US government shutdown, a court ruling against America’s Affordable Care Act and problems at …

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive

Four reasons the global economic outlook for 2019 looks positive Many investors have been rattled by falls in share markets and are fretting about what the new year may hold. But there are a number of reasons to suggest that after a weak 2018, 2019 will be better, and that a well-diversified portfolio should deliver reasonable returns. 1. This is a “mid-cycle” correction Firstly, while some investors fear a recession and full-blown bear market, when …

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates

The Australian economy 2019 – house prices, growth and interest rates   Key points Australian growth has slowed again. The housing cycle downturn and its impact on the economy will likely see growth constrained to around 2.5-3%.   LAs a result, spare capacity is likely to remain significant, keeping wages growth and inflation low.   The RBA is likely to cut rates in 2019 and the housing downturn will likely see Australian shares continue to …

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension

Review of 2018, outlook for 2019 – another cycle extension Key points 2018 saw reasonable global economic and profit growth and still low interest rates but it has been a rough year for investors with worries about the Fed, trade wars and global growth causing volatility and poor returns.   2019 is unlikely to see the plunge into recession many fear with growth likely to stabilise supporting profit growth, the Fed is likely to undertake …