Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …
01 February 2018 Higher global inflation and higher bond yields – what’s the risk and implications for other assets? Key points Rising global growth and rising commodity prices indicate the risks to inflation are gradually moving to the upside. This is most acute in the US with the Fed likely to raise rates more than the market expects this year. This supports the view that the 35-year super cycle decline in bond yields is over. …
19 January 2018 The risk shares and bonds will no longer correlate There is an old saying that “diversification is the only free lunch in finance”. While this adage is often wrongly attributed to Harry Markowitz, it does a great job of articulating the essential insight in his Nobel Prize winning research. What people who’ve followed Markowitz’s know is the attractiveness of an asset in a portfolio doesn’t just depend on its own expected return …
The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last? Key points The global economic environment and corporate profits remain in a strong position and economic growth in 2018 will run at its fastest pace since 2011. It’s too early to fear a significant lift in global interest rates. Central banks in Europe and Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in 2018. US rate hikes will continue. Inflation is likely to …
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key points 2018 is likely to remain good for diversified investors. The investment cycle still favours growth assets over cash and bonds. But expect more volatile and constrained returns as US inflation starts to turn up. Watch US inflation, bond yields, President Trump, the Italian election, China, the Sydney and Melbourne property markets and global business conditions PMIs. Introduction Although 2017 saw the usual …
Could last year’s strong equity returns keep on rolling? Aussie battler On the home front, the economic cycle in Australia is less advanced than in other developed economies. Activity remains subdued as housing investment moderates and consumers remain cautious on account of anaemic wages growth. Nonetheless, the preconditions for an improvement in growth are in place. Business confidence has improved and there is evidence of broad-based acceleration in business investment. At the same time, large …
Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But with global growth …
New year, new financial resolutions The dawn of a new year is the perfect time to hit reset and correct course when it comes to your money. You may have already given thought to some health-related wellness goals for 2018, but what about your financial wellness? AMP research has revealed that a quarter of Australian workers have difficulty in making ends meet, with the most common triggers for financial stress found to be bad debt, …
13 December 2017 How the yield trade is shaping our view of the world The so called yield trade – which has pushed investors out along the risk curve into more risky assets seeking income – has trained individuals to think more critically about their assets they include in their investment portfolios, reckons Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. Since central banks have dropped interest rates to record low …
13 December 2017 Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But …
