Econosights – how much more excess savings do consumers have
This edition of Econosights looks at how much longer households can draw down on savings and what the outlook is for consumer spending.
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Oliver’s insights – goldilocks versus recession
Recession versus “goldilocks” – five reasons why we could still avoid
recession
recession
Oliver’s insights – seven key charts
Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.
Econosights – inflation trends
The anticipated fall in inflation is occurring across the advanced world, thanks to a decline in commodity prices and slowing in goods inflation. But, sticky services inflation is keeping the overall rate of inflation elevated and well above central bank inflation targets.
Oliver’s insights – house price outlook
Australian home prices rose again in April & along with other indicators suggest the home price downturn is over, but we must now watch rates and unemployment
Econosights – how important is the banking sector to the economy?
In this Econosights we look at the role of the banking sector in an economy and how the recent developments risk a further negative flow-on impact to the rest of the economy.
Oliver’s Insights – the RBA hikes rates by another 0.25% – are we there yet?
The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further.
Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it | AMP Capital
Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it Key points The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to around 1.2% pa. This has adversely affected growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to persist. Policies to boost productivity growth include: labour market reforms; more skills training; ongoing high levels of …
Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different | AMP Capital
Home price falls accelerated in August – three reasons why this property downturn will likely be different Key points Australian home prices fell another 1.6% in August and are now down by 3.5% from their high. Rising mortgage rates are the main driver and there is likely more to go. We continue to expect a 15-20% top to bottom fall in home prices out to the second half of next year, followed by a …