Australia – Page 2

Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates | AMP Capital

Econosights: Three reasons why Australia is more vulnerable to higher rates Key points Australian consumers are more vulnerable to interest rate rises compared to our global peers because of : 1) higher levels of household debt; 2) a higher share of variable rate mortgages and even those on fixed-loans only fix for a relatively short period of time; and 3) a large share of recently fixed mortgages are due to expire in the second half …

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Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it | AMP Capital

Australia’s productivity challenge – why it matters and what to do about it Key points The last twenty years have seen a sharp slowdown in productivity growth in Australia from over 2% pa to around 1.2% pa. This has adversely affected growth in living standards and real wages. It will adversely affect asset class returns if allowed to persist. Policies to boost productivity growth include: labour market reforms; more skills training; ongoing high levels of …

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Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? | AMP Capital

Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? Key points An increase in short-term consumer inflation expectations reflects the current high inflation environment. While consumers are assuming that inflation will remain elevated at its current level for the next 1-2 years, this is unlikely as forward-looking inflation indicators have been falling for months. Australian medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored which indicates that the market believes in the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target and does not …

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Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? | AMP Capital

Econosights: How are consumers responding to higher interest rates? Key points Consumers are responding to higher interest rates: housing market indicators are slowing (home price declines have accelerated and auction clearance rates are falling), consumer sentiment is weakening and retail spending is slowing. This is the expected consumer response as interest rates rise. The RBA wants to see slowing economic activity to reduce current inflation and inflation expectations. The concern is around too many rate …

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Australia’s Achilles’ heel – high household debt and rising interest rates…it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue | AMP Capital

Australia’s Achilles’ heel – high household debt and rising interest rates…it’s not as bad as it looks, but it’s still an issue Key points Australian household debt has risen dramatically since the 1980s and is high compared to other countries. The rise is not as bad as it looks because it’s been matched by rising wealth and debt servicing problems are low. However, this will likely change as interest rates rise further & if …

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Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? Key points The absence of significant macro policy differences between the new Labor Government and the Coalition suggests minimal impact on the share market & the $A. There could be some short-term uncertainty if Labor has to rely on minority parties or independents, but its looking like Labor will be able to govern in its own right. The key economic challenges for the new Government …

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Australian housing slowdown Q&A – What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall? | AMP Capital

Australian housing slowdown Q&A – What impact will higher interest rates have? How far will prices fall? Key Points Australian home prices are likely to fall by 10% to 15% into 2024 primarily as a result of poor affordability and rising interest rates. The negative wealth effect from falling home prices should help limit how much the RBA raises rates. A change in Government is unlikely to significantly affect the outlook for home prices, but …

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The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors | AMP Capital

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors Key Points The Fed has finally joined other central banks in raising interest rates, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. This was well flagged and reflects the tight US labour market and high inflation. The Fed flagged another six rate hikes this year and the start of quantitative tightening soon. First rate hikes in a …

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6 things to know about buy now pay later services

6 things to know about buy now pay later services Nearly 85% of financial counsellors in Australia have reported that half, most or all their clients now have some form of buy now pay later debt. Often branded the modern-day layby, buy now pay later services essentially offer the same thing, but you get the product (which could be anything from a new outfit, pub dinner or airline ticket) upfront. Below we explain what you …

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Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions | AMP Capital

Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions Key points The total value of Australian exports to China impacted by trade disputes (which started in 2019) is $23bn (4.5% of total exports or 1% of GDP). The impact to the Australian economy from Chinese trade bans has been mild because the value of affected exports is low and as most sectors have been able to find alternative export markets. Coal, beef, copper ore, cotton, …