E – Oliver’s Insights

Market Update 4 February | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 February Source: Bloomberg, FXStreet, AMP Investment markets & key developments Share markets saw another volatile week. Shares initially rose from oversold conditions helped by good US earnings results, but rate hike expectations, particularly in Europe and in the US after very strong US payrolls and divergent tech sector earnings news, added to volatility. Despite a hit from an earnings-miss by Facebook, US shares rose around 1.6% for the week and Japanese shares gained …

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The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August | AMP Capital

The RBA ends bond buying – but remains “patient” on rates. We expect the first rate hike in August Key Points The RBA will end quantitative easing this month. While it now sees unemployment falling below 4% and higher inflation it is prepared to be “patient” for now. We expect rate hikes to commence in August. Ultimately, we see the cash rate rising to around 1.5 to 2% in the years ahead but it’s …

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Oliver’s Insights – Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind

Oliver’s Insights – Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind Key points Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. it’s too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to bear in mind are that: corrections are healthy and normal; in the absence of a renewed …

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Market Update 28 January | AMP Capital

Market Update 28 January Investment markets & key developments Global share markets saw another rough week as concerns about inflation and monetary tightening intensified against the backdrop of ongoing Russian tensions over Ukraine and Omicron disruptions. However, there was a decent bounce in Australian and Japanese shares at the end of the week from oversold conditions helped by an Apple earnings beat. From their highs to their lows US and Australian shares have now had 10% …

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Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions | AMP Capital

Econosights: Impacts to Australia from Chinese trade restrictions Key points The total value of Australian exports to China impacted by trade disputes (which started in 2019) is $23bn (4.5% of total exports or 1% of GDP). The impact to the Australian economy from Chinese trade bans has been mild because the value of affected exports is low and as most sectors have been able to find alternative export markets. Coal, beef, copper ore, cotton, …

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Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind | AMP Capital

Share market falls – seven things for investors to keep in mind Key Points Share markets have fallen in recent weeks on the back of worries about inflation, monetary tightening, the Omicron disruption and the rising risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Its too early to say markets have bottomed. Key things for investors to bear in mind are that: corrections are healthy and normal; in the absence of a renewed recession share market …

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Market Update 21 January | AMP Capital

Market Update 21 January Source: Bloomberg, FXStreet, AMP Investment markets & key developments Global share markets remained under pressure over the past week on the back of concerns about rising inflation, monetary tightening, Omicron and tensions with Russia over Ukraine. The negative global lead and talk of higher interest rates in Australia also pushed Australian shares down with falls led by health, IT, Telco and financial stocks. Long term bond yields rose initially but their increase …

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2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook | AMP Capital

2022 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook Key Points 2021 saw strong investment returns with low volatility. 2022 is likely to see more constrained returns with increased volatility. Watch: coronavirus and vaccines; inflation; the US mid-term elections; China issues; Russian tensions with Ukraine and the west; & the Australian election. Introduction Despite a wall of worry with coronavirus and inflation, 2021 was a great year for diversified investors, with average balanced …

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Oliver’s Insights – The longer-term legacy of coronavirus – nine implications for investors

The longer-term legacy of coronavirus – nine implications for investors Key points Likely key longer-term implications flowing from the coronavirus pandemic are: bigger government; increased money supply and excess saving; increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; a faster embrace of technology; a greater focus on lifestyle; and a potential post-pandemic boom. The biggest risk is of significantly higher inflation, reversing the long-term downtrend in interest rates. Introduction The magnitude of the coronavirus shock means it will …

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Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation? | AMP Capital

Inflation Q&A – how worried should investors be about higher inflation? Key Points Inflation is placing increasing pressure on major central banks to remove monetary stimulus. Inflation & rising interest rates will likely contribute to more volatile & constrained investment returns this year. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates since the early 1980s is likely to be over removing a tailwind for investment returns. Introduction For last few decades inflation has not …