E – Oliver’s Insights

Five reasons to expect a cooling in the Australian property market and falling prices in 2023 | AMP Capital

Five reasons to expect a cooling in the Australian property market and falling prices in 2023 Key Points After a 22% rise in Australian home prices this year, they are expected to slow to 5% growth in 2022 with prices likely to fall 5-10% in 2023. The main drivers behind the slowdown are: worsening affordability; rising supply; rising rates; macro prudential tightening; & a rotation in spending away from housing. The main risks on the …

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Market Update 26 November | AMP Capital

Market Update 26 November Investment markets & key developments Global share markets mostly fell over the past week as inflation, interest rate and coronavirus concerns – with rising cases in Europe and a new variant in South Africa – rattled investors with travel stocks being hard hit. US shares were up slightly prior to Thanksgiving, but other major markets fell. This included the Australian share market which saw sharp falls in IT, financial, retail and telco …

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Econosights: How will households respond to higher interest rates? | AMP Capital

Econosights: How will households respond to higher interest rates? Key points We think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to tighten interest rates at the end of 2022 (the RBA themselves think a rate hike will come in 2024 or possibly 2023). The last time the central bank hiked the cash rate was more than a decade ago. Falling interest rates over the past 20 years has led to a large decline …

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Market Update 19 November | AMP Capital

Market Update 19 November Investment markets & key developments Global share markets mostly rose over the last week helped by strong US economic data. US, European and Japanese shares rose but Chinese shares fell. Australian shares also fell with sharp falls in financials on the back of bank margin concerns and in resources stocks reflecting lower oil and iron ore prices. Bond yields were mixed – up slightly in the US and Australia but down …

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Market Update 12 November | AMP Capital

Market Update 12 November Investment markets & key developments Share markets were hit again over the past week as more high inflation readings added to concernsabout monetary tightening. This left US and European shares down for the week and Japanese shares little changed. Chinese shares bucked the trend and rose. While falls in US shares weighed on the Australian share market mid-week a strong rise on Friday left it little changed for the week with strong …

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Compound interest is like magic – and it’s an investor’s best friend | AMP Capital

Compound interest is like magic – and it’s an investor’s best friend Key Points Compound interest is an investor’s best friend. The higher the return, the greater the investment contribution and the longer the period the more it works. To make the most of it, ensure an adequate exposure to growth assets, contribute early and often to your investment portfolio and find a way to avoid being thrown off by the investment cycle. Introduction If …

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Oliver’s Insights – US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields

US political protests, inflation and rising bond yields Key points US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity. Global and Australian recovery will boost bond yields and there is good reason to believe that (after yet another false ending) the now nearly 40-year super cycle decline in bond yields may be at or close to over. But the end of the bond bull market is likely to be …

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Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad | AMP Capital

Central banks – including the RBA and Fed – gradually removing monetary stimulus is more good news than bad Key Points The march of central banks towards removing monetary stimulus is continuing with the RBA bringing forward its guidance regarding the first rate hike and the Fed set to commence tapering. We expect both to start raising rates later next year. The shift towards monetary tightening signals slower more constrained share market returns – but …

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Market Update 29 October | AMP Capital

Market Update 29 October Investment markets & key developments Share markets were mixed over the past week – up in the US and Europe on strong US earnings results, but down in Japan, China and Australia. The Australian share market was hit by interest rate fears after a stronger than expected underlying inflation result and signs the RBA may be becoming more hawkish. Bond yields fell in the US and Europe but rose in Australia with …

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Econosights: Should we be worried about an inflation breakout? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Should we be worried about an inflation breakout? Key points Current inflation concerns reflect a rise in consumer goods prices and a spike in energy costs. Most of the factors driving higher inflation reflect COVID related disruptions and should be temporary. But the inflation data is still likely to remain elevated over coming months. While a few central banks are starting to remove some monetary policy accommodation in response to inflation concerns, we don’t …