Weekly Market Update 22 March 2019

Weekly Market Update 22 March 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week While Eurozone shares fell slightly, other major share markets rose over the last week helped by Fed dovishness. From their December low US shares are now up 21%, global shares are up 18% and Australian shares are up 14%. The underperformance of Australian shares in the rebound since December reflects the fact that they didn’t fall as much in last year’s …

Federal budget to deliver good news

Federal budget to deliver good news The Federal budget is creeping up on us even more quickly than usual this year. The Government has brought forward the budget to April 2 to make way for the Federal election, which will most likely be held in May. So it will be similar to what we saw in 2016 when the Government had a budget, then a short time later announced the Federal election. The outlook This …

Recession risks revealed

Recession risks revealed There’s been a lot of talk about a slowdown in Australia, including talk of a recession. That talk intensified this week after December quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures showed growth remained very weak in the December quarter. The December quarter figures show GDP grew just 0.2 per cent and dragging annual growth in 2018 down to 2.3 per cent. Those numbers were below market expectations and below the Reserve Bank of …

‘Millennial socialism’ & the swing of the political pendulum back to the left

‘Millennial socialism’ & the swing of the political pendulum back to the left – what it means for investors Key points CGrowing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left. Support for economic rationalist policies has fallen.   The risk is that the shift away from economic rationalist policies to greater intervention will contribute to constrained medium-term investment returns.   Introduction …

Weekly Market Update 15 March 2019

Weekly Market Update 15 March 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rose over the last week helped by benign economic data.Australian shares slipped though with consumer and financial shares down on worries about the economy. Bond yields were flat to up globally but fell in Australia with the 10-year bond yield falling back below 2% for the first time since 2016 as weakening economic data adds to expectations …

Weekly Market Update 8 March 2019

Weekly Market Update 8 March 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week US, Eurozone, Japanese and Chinese shares fell over the last week on worries about global growth, but Australian shares pushed slightly higher on increasing expectations for rate cuts offsetting, for now, the negative impact of slowing growth. Bond yields fell as the ECB announced more monetary easing. Commodity prices were mixed with metals down but oil and iron ore up. The …

Australia slides into a “per capita recession”

Australia slides into a “per capita recession” Key points Australian growth slowed even more in the December quarter. Growth may bounce back a bit this year, but the housing downturn will likely constrain it to around 2- 2.5%.   As a result, unemployment is likely to drift up and wages growth and inflation remain lower for longer.   The RBA is on track to cut rates this year and the housing downturn will likely see …

Weekly Market Update 1 March 2019

Weekly Market Update 1 March 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week While US shares fell slightly over the last week with geopolitical noise not helping other major share markets including Australian shares continued to rise, arguably playing catch up to the rally in US shares. The Australian share market was led higher by health, IT, banks and industrial shares. Bond yields generally rose as did oil and metals, but iron ore prices …

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year

Five charts and a table that are critical to watch regarding the global economy and markets this year Key points After a strong rebound since December share markets are at risk of a short-term pull back. However, despite this we see this year as being a decent year for share market returns.   Five key global charts to watch as to whether this will be the case are: global business conditions PMIs; global inflation; the …

Weekly Market Update 22 February 2019

Weekly Market Update 22 February 2019 Investment markets and key developments over the past week While US shares were little changed over the last week other major markets saw solid gains helped by good news on trade. This included Australian shares which got a further lift from reasonable earnings results, more talk of rate cuts and upgrades to earnings growth expectations for resources stocks on the back of higher commodity prices. Bond yields were flat to …