E – Oliver’s Insights

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods | AMP Capital

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods Key points The Russia/Ukraine war is causing a big rise across many commodity prices including gas, oil, iron ore, coal and wheat. This will flow through to consumer prices. Flooding across the east coast of Australia will also put upward pressure on fruit and vegetable prices. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher to account for these impacts. We expect headline inflation to be just …

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Market Update 4 March 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine resulted in another volatile week in investment markets as investors worried about the worsening conflict and disruptions to energy supply following the intensification of western sanctions on Russia. Reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant as a result of Russian shelling and the associated risk of a nuclear catastrophe added to the uncertainty. …

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5 big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? | AMP Capital

5 big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? | AMP Capital Key Points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced …

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Market Update 25 February 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 25 February 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets were hit over the last week as Ukraine tensions escalated and then Russia invaded Ukraine. Although Russia has indicated it does not plan to occupy Ukraine it has indicated that its attack is aimed at its “demilitarization and denazification.” While US shares saw a small bounce on Wednesday on hopes that a worsening of the energy crisis would be …

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Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 | AMP Capital

Econosights: Four reasons to expect a softer US economy in 2022 Key points The US economy is facing numerous headwinds in 2022 which will slow US economic growth. Inflation is too high, interest rates are going to rise, the value of the Fed’s balance sheet will fall and fiscal “thrust” has turned negative. These factors are also leading to a peak in earnings growth. We expect lower equity returns in the US market in 2022 …

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The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors | AMP Capital

The escalation in Ukraine tensions – implications for investors Key Points Ukraine tensions have escalated with Russia ordering troops into Ukraine regions already occupied by Russian separatists. Share markets are at high risk of more downside on fear of further escalation and uncertainty about sanctions/gas supply to Europe. The history of crisis events shows a short term hit to markets followed by a rebound over 3 to 12 months. Given the difficulty in timing …

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US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 | AMP Capital

US faces stiff headwinds in 2022 What happens to interest rates locally and globally is always important for investors, but particularly so at turning points in the economy. And notwithstanding the recent Omicron outbreak, the world’s most influential central bank, the US Federal Reserve, looks likely to lift interest rates as early as March. It would be the first increase in more than three years and marks a significant turning point in the global economic …

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Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when

Why Australian interest rates are likely to rise and when Senior economist Diana Mousina answers our questions on potential interest rate changes and what it could mean for Aussie households. Why have interest rates been so low for so long? The main reason interest rates have been kept so low is the Reserve Bank of Australia undershooting on its inflation target of 2-3%. We haven’t seen underlying or core inflation within that band sustainably since …

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Market Update 18 February 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 February 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets have seen another volatile week being buffeted by waxing and waning fears of Russia invading Ukraine and fears of inflation and interest rate hikes. This left US, European and Japanese share markets down. Solid profit results helped protect the Australian share market, which was up slightly for the week, with gains in health, property and consumer staple shares offsetting falls …

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Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues | AMP Capital

Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Key Points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to pick up to 3% this year. A Russian invasion of Ukraine risks a short term hit to shares followed by recovery over the next 3 to 12 mths. Australian home …