E – Oliver’s Insights

Econosights: Implications from Australia’s energy “crisis” | AMP Capital

Econosights: Implications from Australia’s energy “crisis” Key points Australian electricity and gas price increases will impact most consumers from 1 July 2022. We expect the increase in energy prices to add 1 percentage points to headline inflation. We now see headline inflation peaking at 7% in the September quarter and trimmed mean inflation peaking at 5.5% in the December quarter. There are no changes to our expectations for the cash rate from the lift in …

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The RBA hikes rates again with more to go – but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening | AMP Capital

The RBA hikes rates again with more to go – but falling confidence and home prices will limit RBA tightening Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate again – by 0.5% taking it to 0.85% and continues to signal more rate hikes ahead. We expect the cash rate to rise to 1.5-2% by year-end and to peak at 2-2.5% by mid next year. Greater sensitivity to higher interest rates will cap how much …

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Econosights: China – lockdowns, policy stimulus and regulatory burdens | AMP Capital

Econosights: China – lockdowns, policy stimulus and regulatory burdens Key points There are reasons to be optimistic on China: lockdowns are easing which will help to abate supply-chain related inflation, policy stimulus measures have significantly ramped up and more can be done and geopolitical tensions have room to improve with the change of government in Australia and potential roll-back of US tariffs before the November mid-term election. Chinese shares have been hit hard in recent …

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Market Update 03 June 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 03 June 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets mostly rose again in the past week as the rebound from oversold levels continued partly on hopes that some cooling in demand will take pressure of inflation and central banks, and as China started to reopen. European shares were little changed but US, Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares rose. The gains in Australian shares were let by resources, consumer staples and industrials offsetting falls …

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National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic – expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall | AMP Capital

National property prices fall for the first time since the pandemic – expect a 10-15% top to bottom fall Key points Australian home prices fell 0.1% in May, their first decline since the pandemic. The main drivers behind the downturn are: poor affordability with prices up nearly 29% over 21 months; rising mortgage rates; a rotation in spending away from housing; and a decline in home buyer confidence. We continue to expect a 10-15% fall …

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Market Update 27 May 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 27 May 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets saw a bit of relief in the past week – bouncing of oversold lows helped by less hawkish than feared comments from the ECB and Fed, a further pullback in US bond yields, improved outlooks from some US retailers and airlines and M&A activity. This left the US share market on track for its first weekly gain after seven weeks of falls, and European, …

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Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? | AMP Capital

Australia’s new Government – what does it mean for investors? Key points The absence of significant macro policy differences between the new Labor Government and the Coalition suggests minimal impact on the share market & the $A. There could be some short-term uncertainty if Labor has to rely on minority parties or independents, but its looking like Labor will be able to govern in its own right. The key economic challenges for the new Government …

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Market Update 20 May 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 20 May 2022 Investment markets & key developments It was another volatile weak in share markets with worries that rate hikes, cost pressures and Chinese supply disruptions would hit profits after downgrades from some US retailers and tech stocks. This left US and Eurozone shares down, but Japanese, Chinese and Australian shares rose helped by monetary easing in China. In Australia gains in IT, utility and material shares more than offset falls in …

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The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

The falls in share markets this year – the bad news and the good Key points Share markets remain under pressure from high inflation, rising interest rates and bond yields, the war in Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns. It’s still too early to say markets have bottomed. However, it’s not all negative: we may have seen peak inflation in the US, share market earnings are still rising, Covid cases in China appear to be slowing …

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Econosights: The outlook for Australian wages | AMP Capital

Econosights: The outlook for Australian wages Key points Australian wages growth has been constrained because the supply of labour has increased since the beginning of the pandemic with the labour force participation rate now at a record high. High labour underutilisation over recent years has also kept a lid on wages growth. But, a tighter labour market, falling labour underutilisation, a higher inflation environment, a lift in the minimum wage and higher public sector wage …