E – Insights Papers

What the rise of the $A means for global investors

What the rise of the $A means for global investors The recent rise of the Australian dollar has been surprising but not confounding for experts who believe the its natural level is closer to US70 cents. Indeed, it’s the weakness of the US dollar that’s pushed the Australian dollar higher relative to the benchmark currency in recent weeks even though US economic growth and a resurgent commodities segment had most market watchers expecting the Australian …

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Are Australian households more vulnerable than we think?

Are Australian households more vulnerable than we think? A lot has been said and written about Australia’s household debt levels and possible implications on the banking system and the economy more broadly. But could Australian households be even more constrained than the headline numbers are suggesting? Michele Bullock, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor, highlights the stresses households will likely be facing well before any rise official interest rate materialises in this speech. Bullock points …

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Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Wrap

Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Wrap Welcome again to the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Wrap, where our team share the latest ESG issues in the media and their implications on investment.This month the key ESG issues making headlines are: Retail: Are Australian retailers ready for slavery laws? Oil & Gas: Cities across the US sue fossil fuel companies for contributions to climate change Grounds for ditching the daily coffee? (Yes, we did just use …

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What if interest rates rise faster than expected?

What if interest rates rise faster than expected? The US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates twice as often as the market expects in 2018, according to AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist Shane Oliver. “This year we think the Fed is going to raise rates more than the market is allowing for,” says Oliver. “Market expectations are factoring about two and a half hikes and we actually think they will do …

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The outlook for real assets in 2018

The outlook for real assets in 2018 Adjustments to monetary policy by Central Banks globally, along with the technological change sweeping through and changing the shape of industries, emerge as the two pervasive themes likely to define real asset valuations in 2018 and beyond, according to leading real estate and infrastructure experts. The favourable outlook for real assets is set to continue in 2018, with interest rates globally set to stay at historically low levels, …

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Equities riding on fear not fundamentals

Equities riding on fear not fundamentals “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” said Franklin D Roosevelt at his inauguration as US President in 1933. I think “the only thing we have to fear is the fear index itself” is a better description of where investors are at right now. It’s been a wild ride on Wall Street and beyond of the past week – the worst in two years for the …

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‘Volatility comes in clusters’: Dermot Ryan

‘Volatility comes in clusters’: Dermot Ryan Investors glued to their share portfolio screens recently following the abrupt share market selloff should expect to experience more of the same in the months ahead, according to Dermot Ryan, AMP Capital Income Equity Fund Co-Portfolio Manager.While more volatility can mean higher levels of anxiety for some investors, it can also bring opportunities to those able to stay calm during these periods, Ryan adds. “Volatility, where we haven’t seen …

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What high household debt means for investors

What high household debt means for investors “High house-hold debt is Australia’s Achilles heel,” says AMP Capital Head of Investment Strategy and Economics and Chief Economist, Shane Oliver. “I’ve been thinking this for many years now and yet it seems to keep going higher.” Latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics puts total household liabilities at $2.466 trillion, or 199.7 percent of disposable income, putting it among the highest in the world. Australians have …

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How mortgage stress could impact your share portfolio

How mortgage stress could impact your share portfolio Investors in the local share market should be on high alert for signs of risks creeping into their portfolios as mortgage stresses may start mounting on younger families into next year, says Dermot Ryan, AMP Capital’s Equity Income Fund Co-Portfolio Manager. No sooner have we seen slight mortgage increases from the banks do we see a swath of profit downgrades from listed companies who sell to young …

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Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform

Beware the double-edged sword of US tax reform Tax reform in the United States has helped to spur on global economic growth, but investors should be aware of the double-edged sword that comes with the added exuberance, as already expensive share markets continue to edge higher. While company earnings growth in the US – and indeed in Australia – are generally supportive valuations, according to Diana Mousina, AMP Capital’s Senior Economist, the continued strong run …