Market Update 19 March 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global sharemarket performance continues to diverge. US shares started the week strongly but higher bond yields following the US Federal Reserve’s meeting led US shares down 0.7% over the week for the S&P500 with the heavier tech weighted NASDAQ even weaker (-1.5%). The theme of a rotation out of US to global shares continues to play out with European shares up …
Indexation allows for higher super contributions from 1 July, 2021 Making super contributions after 1 July this year comes with a nice surprise as the concessional and non-concessional caps have been indexed along with the increases to the Transfer Balance Cap and Total Super Balance Cap. So how do the contribution changes work? Increase in concessional contributions cap Indexation of the standard concessional contributions cap takes place in increments of $2,500, calculated on increases …
Market Update 12 March 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Share markets rebounded over the last week as bond markets settled down a bit helped by central bank action and as $1.9 trillion in additional US stimulus was signed into law by President Biden. This saw the US share market rise to a record high (albeit the bond sensitive Nasdaq remains 5% down from its high), Eurozone shares rise to their highest …
Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle? Key points The history of cyclical bull markets in shares suggests that the rebound since last March still has a way to go. But it’s normal for the second 12 months of a cyclical bull market to see slower returns from shares. While shares are vulnerable to a further correction triggered by the spike in …
Market Update 5 March 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week While share markets had a strong bounce early in the past week as fears around rising bond yields briefly eased they returned later in the week particularly after Fed Chair Powell reiterated the Fed’s dovishness but failed to signal significant concern or action to deal with rising bond yields. As a result, US, Japanese and Chinese shares fell for the week, …
Bitcoin – it’s not a currency, it’s not a capital asset… so what is it? Key points Digital currencies and blockchain technology may have a lot to offer – but that does not mean Bitcoin will be it. Due to extreme volatility, high transaction costs and slow processing, Bitcoin does not cut it as digital cash. But it’s not an asset generating cashflows either, which makes it impossible to value. Key for investors is not …
RBA concerns underline mid-to-long term risks for the housing market One of the more interesting snippets of information to come out of the minutes of the February meeting of the Reserve Bank Board was an acknowledgement by members of the risks generated by a low-rate environment and, in particular, those “linked to higher leverage and asset prices, particularly in the housing market”. They weren’t concerned enough to detour from their stimulus program, but the RBA …
Market Update 26 February 2021 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets fell over the last week as the selloff in bonds accelerated raising concerns about valuations. Bond yields increased significantly, particularly in the US and Australia and 10 year yields at their highs on Friday were up by around 100 basis points in the US from last year’s low and by around 130 basis points in Australia, before settling …
Econosights: Outlook for the US economy in 2021 Key points The US is due for a strong economic recovery in 2021, driven by a large injection of fiscal stimulus. US GDP should have recovered its 2020 COVID losses in the March quarter and be back to its pre-COVID trend level of GDP by end of the year. Fiscal stimulus could overheat the economy in late 2021/early 2022. Consumer inflation expectations are already at multi-year highs. …
The bond crash of 2021? Seven things for investors to consider Key points Higher bond yields are normal in economic recovery and should not be a major problem for shares if they are matched by rising earnings. But too rapid a rise in bond yields risks driving a deeper correction in shares. Central banks want higher inflation but will look through any short-term spike. The 40-year downtrend in inflation and bond yields is likely over. …
