E – Insights Papers

Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned | AMP Capital

Central banks heading towards the easing exits – five reasons not to be too concerned Key points The gradual shift of central banks including the Fed and RBA towards an exit from monetary easing has caused some volatility in investment markets. We continue to expect the first RBA rate hike to be in 2023, albeit there is a risk it could come in late 2022. However, there are five reasons not to be too concerned: …

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COVID-19 real estate trends: The fire break or the accelerant? | AMP Capital

COVID-19 real estate trends: The fire break or the accelerant? As the world tried to make sense of the COVID-19 crisis through the first half of 2020, one of the most striking themes was the way in which the pandemic had accelerated a number of trends across commerce and society. Two of these – e-commerce and flexible working – were particularly significant for the property sector, in their effect and long-term implications for retail, industrial …

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Market Update 18 June | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 June Investment markets and key developments over the past week While US shares fell over the last week as the Fed surprised on the hawkish side and Chinese shares also fell, Eurozone and Japanese shares rose benefitting from reopening and having central banks that are a long way behind the Fed. Australian shares also had a strong week rising to a new record high although this was led by IT, health, retail …

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Back in Style: Rapid COVID recovery a kick starter for the retail sector | AMP Capital

Back in Style: Rapid COVID recovery a kick starter for the retail sector While “rona” was selected by Macquarie Dictionary as 2020’s word of the year, “stir-crazy” would have made it onto many peoples’ shortlists. From closed borders to seating quotas, we have had to contend with various forms of restrictions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thankfully, cases in Australia have remained under control and life has started to return to normal with …

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Market Update 11 June | AMP Capital

Market Update 11 June Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets mostly rallied over the last week. The big surprise perhaps was the US where shares rallied to a new record high and bond yields fell despite another surge in inflation, because investors (rightly in my view) interpreted the make-up of higher than expected inflation for May as consistent with the Fed’s assessment that the spike in inflation would be …

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Inflation – why it matters for investment markets | AMP Capital

Inflation – why it matters for investment markets Key points The shift from high inflation to low inflation has been a key tailwind for investment returns over the last 40 years – in particular it has allowed capital growth in excess of growth in earnings and rents. A long-term stabilisation in inflation around central bank targets which is our base case would remove this tailwind but still allow reasonable returns, whereas a sustained break …

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Market Update 4 June | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 June Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets were mixed over the last week with Eurozone shares up, but US shares down slightly not helped by ongoing inflation and taper fears with Japanese and Chinese shares also down a bit. Despite the messy global lead Australian shares pushed further into record territory helped along by strong economic growth data and ongoing RBA dovishness. The rise in the …

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The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism | AMP Capital

The Australian economic recovery remained strong in the March quarter with GDP up 1.8% – seven reasons for optimism Key points With growth of 1.8% in the March quarter, Australian GDP is now back above its pre pandemic level. While uncertainties remain – including around the latest coronavirus outbreak in Victoria – there are seven reasons for optimism that the recovery will continue at a decent rate: vaccines; global growth is ramping up; consumer spending …

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Market Update 28 May | AMP Capital

Market Update 28 May Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global share markets rebounded over the last week as inflation fears faded a bit and economic data indicated that the recovery continues. The positive global lead saw the Australian share market shake off worries about the dip in the iron ore price and the latest Victorian snap lockdown and rise to a new record, led by very strong gains in telcos, IT, …

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Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation? | AMP Capital

Inflation Q&A – should we be worried about higher inflation? Key points Inflation will likely rise further in the months ahead due to base effects, bottlenecks & reopening but it’s likely to fall back again from later this year as these drivers fade. Shares face short-term correction risks but as inflation settles the broad trend is likely to remain up. Viewed in a very long-term context, we are likely now going through the bottoming of …