E – Oliver’s Insights

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) | AMP Capital

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for rates to rise …

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Market Update 29 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 29 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments The bounce back in shares continued over the last week on hopes that slowing growth will see central banks ease up on the pace of monetary tightening helped along by mostly good earnings results. However, while US and European shares rose, Japanese and Chinese shares fell. The positive global lead along with a less bad than feared CPI result reducing the risk of a …

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The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) | AMP Capital

The good news in the plunge in markets – higher medium-term return potential (assuming inflation is tamed) Key points The fall in bond and share values and rise in their investment yields on the back of higher inflation has seen our medium term (5 to 10 year) return projections for a diversified mix of assets rise to around 6.8% p.a. If inflation falls back to around 2.5% pa this suggests reasonable average returns ahead. The …

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Market Update 22 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 22 July 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Global sharemarkets have rallied again this week with US up 3.5%, Australia 2.9%, Europe 3.4%, Japan 3.8% while Chinese stocks are down by 0.3%. Positive gains in most sharemarkets recently after weeks of declines is leading to questions about whether we have seen the low in markets. Our view has not changed – we think the risk is of more downside …

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Market Update 15 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 15 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets mostly fell over the last week on fears that still rising inflation will trigger faster rate hikes and recession. While Japanese shares rose, US, European and Chinese shares fell. The fall in Eurozone shares was magnified by the risk of a permanent shutdown of Russian gas flowing through the Nordstream 1 pipeline to Germany following a maintenance shutdown and another political crisis in …

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Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction | AMP Capital

In this Econosights we look at some of the current issues in the housing market, including the the expiration of fixed rate mortgages and the outook for residential construction… Econosights: Australian housing – impacts from the fixed rate mortgage “cliff” and risks to housing construction Key points A large chunk of home loans that have been recently fixed at ultra-low rates will roll onto a variable mortgage rate that is 2-3 times higher. This is …

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Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down | AMP Capital

Inflation in the 70s – baby boomer fantasy or nightmare? Why central banks must focus on getting inflation back down Key points The high inflation of the 1970s was bad for economies and bad for investment returns. The long-term downtrend in inflation and interest rates is likely over removing a tailwind for investment returns. But a return to sustained 1970’s levels of inflation appears unlikely. Introduction I grew up in the 1970s and it …

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Market Update 8 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 8 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments Share markets mostly rose over the last week on hopes that central banks will be able to tame inflation without causing a recession. However, it was messy with Eurozone shares – where the risk of recession is greatest – first making a new bear market low earlier in the week. Australian shares followed the global lead higher with very strong gains in IT, consumer …

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2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good | AMP Capital

2021-22 saw poor investment returns – the bad news and the good Key points 2021-22 was a rough year for investors as high inflation, rising interest rates and recession fears impacted. Shares could still fall further as interest rates continue to rise and recession risks are high. However, inflation pressures are showing some signs of easing which may take pressure off central banks from later this year. Some key things for investors to keep …

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Market Update 1 July 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 1 July 2022 Investment markets & key developments Recession fears dominated over the last week pushing US, European and Japanese shares down, although Chinese shares (having already had a 35% bear market) rose. Australian shares were little changed with gains in utilities, energy and industrials offset by falls in property, IT and telco shares. Recession fears also pushed down long-term bond yields, oil prices and metal prices with the iron ore price …