The confusing economic picture

The confusing economic picture – why you need to know the difference between leading and lagging economic indicators Dr Shane Oliver – Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Download PDF version Key points For nearly 30 years Australia had benign economic cycles so the current environment may be a bit of a shock for many. Still low unemployment and still high inflation despite slowing economic growth are not that unusual because they both normally lag …

Weekly market update 21-07-2023

More falls in inflation; implications of Russia’s move to end the Ukraine grain export deal; why RBA targeting “involuntary unemployment” won’t work; why the RBA must tread carefully on jobs; and more.

Oliver’s insights – seven key charts

Seven key charts worth keeping an eye on remain: global business conditions PMIs; inflation and our Inflation Indicators; unemployment and underemployment; inflation expectations; earnings revisions; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the US dollar.

Oliver’s insights – personal finance 101

Getting our personal finances right can be a challenge at times. And the surge in interest rates has arguably made it even harder for many. This article looks at some common-sense personal finance tips that may be of use.

Oliver’s insights – rebounding investment returns

The past financial year saw a solid rebound in investment returns, after the negative returns of the 2021-22 financial year. This note reviews the past 12 months in investment markets and looks at the outlook.

Weekly market update 30-06-2023

The 2022-23 financial year looks to have seen a solid rebound in superannuation returns; falling inflation & still hawkish central banks; its a close call but RBA likely to hike again; why RBA GovernerLowe should stay; more on the potential ‘TSwift economy lift’.

Econosights – Australian inflation

Are there better tools available to policymakers than raising interest rates to reduce inflation? Especially as interest rate hikes are having an unequal impact across household groups.

Oliver’s insights – Australian recession Q&A

Recession has been a recurring theme over the last year or so but has intensified lately. But what’s driving it? How serious is the risk of recession? And what would it mean for Australians and investors?

Weekly market update 23-06-2023

Shares still at risk of a correction; central banks signalling more work to do; and high recession risk in Australia.

Informed June 2023 Market Update

June 2023 Market update The table below provides details of the movement in average investment returns from various asset classes for the period up to 31 May 2023. Asset class (% change) 1 month 3 months 1 year 3 years (% pa) Australian shares -2.5 -0.9 2.9 11.4 Smaller companies -3.3 -1.3 -5.8 4.5 International shares (unhedged) 1.2 8.4 13.4 11.9 International shares (hedged) -0.2 4.0 3.2 11.7 Emerging markets (unhedged) 0.4 4.4 1.4 4.4 Property …