Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks? | AMP Capital

Econosights: Is the Bank of England’s recession forecast a warning for other central banks?   Key points The Bank of England’s latest forecasts assume a bleak outlook for the UK over 2022/23 with inflation peaking at 13%, a decline in GDP growth of more than 2% and a recession lasting over a year. Australia and the US are facing some similarities to the UK economy, but the energy crisis in both countries is less severe. …

Market Update 5 August 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 5 August 2022 Investment markets & key developments The rebound in share markets continued over the last week helped by good earnings data and relief that increased China/US tensions resulting from US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan did not spill over into a more serious conflict (at least not yet). The positive global lead along with signs of slightly diminished hawkishness from the RBA pushed the Australian share market higher with …

Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us? | AMP Capital

Econosights: What are inflation expectations telling us?   Key points An increase in short-term consumer inflation expectations reflects the current high inflation environment. While consumers are assuming that inflation will remain elevated at its current level for the next 1-2 years, this is unlikely as forward-looking inflation indicators have been falling for months. Australian medium-term inflation expectations remain well anchored which indicates that the market believes in the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target and does not …

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) | AMP Capital

Five reasons why the RBA cash rate is likely to peak (or should peak) with a 2 in front of it rather than a 3 (or more) Key points The RBA has hiked the cash rate by another 0.5% taking it to 1.85% and signalling more hikes ahead. We see the cash rate peaking around 2.6% which is at the low end of market and economists’ expectations. Market & consensus expectations for rates to rise …