The 2022-23 Australian Budget – a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits | AMP Capital

The 2022-23 Australian Budget – a “magic election pudding” of more spending and lower deficits Key Points A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits, with the 2022-23 budget deficit expected to be $80bn (down from $99bn in December). Key measures include “cost of living” payments, a temporary cut to fuel excise, more spending on infrastructure & defence & more help for home buyers. Relying mainly on nominal economic growth to …

Oliver’s Insights – Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better?

Oliver’s Insights – Five big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? Key points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced globalisation; …

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors | AMP Capital

The US Federal Reserve starts raising interest rates – implications for Australia and investors Key Points The Fed has finally joined other central banks in raising interest rates, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. This was well flagged and reflects the tight US labour market and high inflation. The Fed flagged another six rate hikes this year and the start of quantitative tightening soon. First rate hikes in a …

Market Update 18 March 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 18 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw share markets rebound helped by optimism about a peace deal in Ukraine, a fall back in oil prices, relief that the Fed’s first rate hike was broadly as expected with the Fed seeing the US economy as strong and indications that China will provide more policy stimulus partly to combat covid related lockdowns. This saw strong gains in …

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine | AMP Capital

Econosights: Europe recession risks– implications from the war in Ukraine Key points Eurozone inflation is likely to be well over 6% per annum by mid-year from high commodity prices lifting electricity, gas and petrol costs. This will hit consumer spending. Risks of a Eurozone recession in the first half of 2022 are high. The US should avoid recession for now. The ECB appears too optimistic on the growth outlook despite the conflict in Ukraine which …

Market Update 11 March 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 11 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week The past week saw a further escalation in sanctions over the war in Ukraine with now energy being targeted resulting in another surge in oil prices and leg down in global share prices before a relief rally kicked in on hopes for a peace deal and increased OPEC production only to see share markets fall again. The gyrations left US, Japanese and …

Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices | AMP Capital

Another energy shock and the threat from higher petrol prices Key Points Oil prices have spiked on the anticipation and now reality of restrictions on Russian oil supply from the war in Ukraine. This is driving a sharp rise in petrol prices which will hit household spending power. Fortunately, there is an offset in Australia from the boost to national income from higher energy prices and commodity prices generally and scope for the Federal Government …

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods | AMP Capital

Econosights: Inflation risks: implications from Russia/Ukraine war and the floods Key points The Russia/Ukraine war is causing a big rise across many commodity prices including gas, oil, iron ore, coal and wheat. This will flow through to consumer prices. Flooding across the east coast of Australia will also put upward pressure on fruit and vegetable prices. We have revised our inflation forecasts higher to account for these impacts. We expect headline inflation to be just …

Market Update 4 March 2022 | AMP Capital

Market Update 4 March 2022 Investment markets and key developments over the past week Uncertainty over the war in Ukraine resulted in another volatile week in investment markets as investors worried about the worsening conflict and disruptions to energy supply following the intensification of western sanctions on Russia. Reports of a fire at a Ukrainian nuclear power plant as a result of Russian shelling and the associated risk of a nuclear catastrophe added to the uncertainty. …

5 big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? | AMP Capital

5 big picture implications of the war in Ukraine of relevance for investors – and why are Australian shares holding up better? | AMP Capital   Key Points The situation regarding Ukraine is at high risk of getting worse before it gets better for investment markets. The key is how much Russian energy exports are disrupted & whether NATO forces avoid the conflict. Five big picture implications are likely to be: increased geopolitical tensions; reduced …