Episode #98: Australian home prices up on supply shortfall, but at risk from high rates The last three major cyclical upswings in home prices have required lower interest rates to be sustained. With rate cuts still a long way away, AMP’s Chief Economist Shane Oliver looks at why the risk of another leg down in prices is high next year, particularly if unemployment rises significantly, and the key indicators to watch in the months ahead. …
The rise in bond yields has left shares offering a low risk premium over bonds leaving them at risk of more softness. The conflict in Israel this week has added to the risk, although the threat should be minimal if Iran is not drawn in, avoiding a severe impact on oil supplies. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at the parallels with the run up in bond yields prior to the 1987 crash, current …
As rapid monetary tightening means a high risk of recession continues to persist, growth has generally been more resilient than expected. AMP’s chief economist Dr. Shane Oliver looks at five key reasons for why we could still avoid recession. Important information: This podcast is general in nature and hasn’t taken your circumstances into account. It’s important you consider your personal circumstances and speak to a financial adviser before deciding what’s right for you. Any general …
Seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on in assessing the investment outlook Key points While we are optimistic on a 12-month horizon, shares are at high risk of further falls and a re-test of their June lows in the short term given hawkish central banks, heightened recession risks and geopolitical risks. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye on by investors are: global business conditions PMIs; US inflation and our …
Investment outlook Q&A – inflation, interest rates, Russia & Ukraine, the risk of a share crash, house prices and other issues Key Points Inflation will likely slow later this year but remain well above pre-pandemic levels over the medium term. Wages growth is likely to pick up to 3% this year. A Russian invasion of Ukraine risks a short term hit to shares followed by recovery over the next 3 to 12 mths. Australian home …
Seven key charts for investors to watch regarding the global economy and investment markets this year Key points Shares are at risk of a short-term correction or consolidation, but investment markets should provide solid returns this year on the back of continuing economic recovery and low interest rates. Seven key global charts worth keeping an eye on by investors this year are: the trend in new coronavirus cases and deaths; global business conditions PMIs; unemployment; …
What’s on the cards for Australia now that we have a second wave? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) had its August board meeting on Tuesday 4th, and though there were no real surprises, I think we can expect more out of the central bank in the coming months. In its meeting, the RBA made mention of the situation unfolding in Victoria, which is sadly seeing COVID-19 infect more people in the state now than …
Worker exploitation: an epidemic within a pandemic In the wake of the global economic shutdown, unemployment figures are capturing the attention of most analysists. But the headline figures mask a stark reality – for some who remain in the ranks of the employed, the global pandemic is ushering in a new period of hardship at work. As our head of sustainable investing, Emily Woodland, touched on in a piece last month1, around the world, COVID-19 …
