Macroeconomics

Econosights – The end of Japanese stagnation?

Econosights – The end of Japanese stagnation? Key points Years of low growth and inflation are gradually turning around in Japan thanks to the slow-moving impacts of Abenomics combined with a strong global economy. A lift in growth and employment reforms are increasing participation in the labour market, adding to an already tight labour market. Recent wage agreements will add to inflation. The solid economic cycle and good corporate health is positive news for Japanese …

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Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle?

Where are we in the unlisted commercial property cycle? Key points Australian unlisted commercial property returns have been very strong this decade thanks largely to the “search for attractive yield” by investors. This return driver is expected to start to fade but rising rents, particularly in the south-east office markets, will provide an offset keeping returns solid for now. Commercial property yields still offer a strong premium relative to bonds suggesting we are a long …

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The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession?

The “gradually” maturing investment cycle – what is the risk of a US recession? Key points With inflationary pressures starting to rise in the US the global investment cycle is starting to get more mature. This is likely to mean a further rise in bond yields and more share market volatility. However, there is still little sign of the sort of excesses that precede economic downturns, profit slumps and major bear markets suggesting that we …

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Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk?

Australian’s love affair with debt – how big is the risk? Key points Household debt levels in Australia are high compared to other countries and still rising. The rise is not as bad as it looks because its been matched by rising wealth and debt servicing problems are low. However, this could change as interest rates rise and if home prices fall sharply. The trigger for major problems remains hard to see but its worth …

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Correction time for shares?

Correction time for shares? Key points The US share market is long overdue a decent correction. This now appears to be unfolding and may have further to go as higher inflation, a slightly more aggressive Fed and higher bond yields are factored in. This will impact most share markets including Australian shares. However, in the absence of an aggressive 1994 style back-up in bond yields or a US recession – neither of which we expect …

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The risk shares and bonds will no longer correlate

19 January 2018 The risk shares and bonds will no longer correlate There is an old saying that “diversification is the only free lunch in finance”. While this adage is often wrongly attributed to Harry Markowitz, it does a great job of articulating the essential insight in his Nobel Prize winning research. What people who’ve followed Markowitz’s know is the attractiveness of an asset in a portfolio doesn’t just depend on its own expected return …

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The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last?

The world economy in 2018 – how much longer can the global upturn last? Key points The global economic environment and corporate profits remain in a strong position and economic growth in 2018 will run at its fastest pace since 2011. It’s too early to fear a significant lift in global interest rates. Central banks in Europe and Japan will keep interest rates unchanged in 2018. US rate hikes will continue. Inflation is likely to …

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Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018

Volatility could present buying opportunities in 2018 Volatility and the first meaningful lift in inflation coming from the United States will likely be the main differentiating features in global financial markets in 2018 compared to this year, according to Dr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital’s Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist. The dips in share markets experts anticipated in 2017 are more likely to materialise in the new year, Oliver notes. But with global growth …

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Investors found the “sweet spot” in 2017

13 December 2017 Investors found the “sweet spot” in 2017 It was a good year for share market investors in 2017, particularly for those who overcame the fear of a potential market correction and maintained exposure to global listed markets. Looking back on share market and asset price performance generally, the combination of solid global growth and profits and yet low inflation and benign central banks created a “sweet spot” for investors in 2017. Investment …

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Debunking 3 myths around global listed infrastructure

13 December 2017 Debunking 3 myths around global listed infrastructure Did you know it takes 957 gallons of water to create a single Big Mac? Some 550 million Big Macs are consumed each year in the US alone. That’s a lot of water. But we simply wouldn’t have Big Macs without the infrastructure to filter and transport water to each part of the Big Mac production process. It’s easy to forget that infrastructure is a …